Posted on 08/29/2016 3:50:13 AM PDT by taildragger
Media Report: 25% of Current Florida Primary Ballots Never Voted Before, EVER…
[…] We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.”….
The “Monster Vote“ is the name attributed to the largest voting bloc in U.S. history. The voters who have/had given up on the political process because it seemed futile to vote for a rigged system where nothing ever changes. –Outlined Here–
However, we first noted the surfacing of the Monster Vote in relation to the political outsider Donald Trump toward the end of 2015. It was, and is, a rather controversial theorem because the voting bloc would make all media polling completely irrelevant.
Throughout the latter part of 2015 and into the first quarter of 2016 we put our research antenna on high alert to see if the indications were real. We paid a statistician to model the data we collected. We made predictions which, if the bloc was accurate, would stun the professional political class.
Tracking social media, geographic “non-media polling” and alternate media matrices led us to believe Trump would dominate in the presidential primary. The predictions modeled the results with uncanny accuracy. Gobsmacking accuracy.
A few months later the New York Times began quietly evolving it’s electoral modeling. Washington Post political writer Bob Costa began talking about something that he too was noticing which tracked with our own research. Large numbers of the electorate who never engaged in the political process before were becoming increasingly visible.
Throughout this entire year there have been indications the “Monster Vote” is very real, but you have to look carefully to see them – and, obviously, you must inoculate yourself from conformational bias. 400,000 donations to Trump less than $200 in June was one such example. The social media app Zip App is yet another. 2,000,000 views of an innocuous Trump facebook video within 24 hours is another.
It’s a tenuous discussion because everyone wants to belittle anyone talking about it (looking at you Rush Limbaugh), and simultaneously those holding Cold Anger intensity don’t talk about it – everyone just goes about their business, yet everyone seems to know.
Well, the left-leaning Tampa Bay Times has just dropped a big bit of data which seems to also confirm the existence of this phenomenon:
[…] “This is huge,” said Marian Johnson, senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber and one of the foremost experts on Florida campaigns and politics. “I can envision election night when the votes are counted that certain people win that nobody thought had a chance, and that being attributed to this trend.”
As of Thursday morning, more than 855,000 primary ballots had been cast by mail. More than a quarter of those votes came from Floridians who had not voted in the last four primaries and another 20 percent from people who voted in just one of the last four primaries.
In other words, these are not “likely voters” surveyed by most pollsters or targeted by sophisticated political campaigns. The trend applies to Democrats and Republicans alike and across the state, said Johnson, who was shocked when she first spotted the trend developing weeks ago.
“The first thing I did was go back to my data people and said, ‘Are you sure you ran this right?’ “
They had. The data crunchers looked at who requested mail ballots and who is returning them, and categorized each voter by a zero, one, two, three or four — depending on how many of the last four primaries they voted in.
[…] We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.” (read more)
♦ Remember, even in honest scientific polling – the poll methodologies are based on “assumptions”, or inputs into the collected poll samples in order to make them representative of the anticipated turnout.
♦ Thanks to Donald Trump, historic turnout trends are obsolete. Additionally, historic demographics and party affiliations are also obsolete. As a consequence any poll data that is relying on obsolete sample methodology is going to be significantly inaccurate.
If the current ballot data reported in Florida (which does indeed line up with the changes in the Florida voter data-base) extends even remotely similar to the other states throughout the nation, the prior prediction graphic below might even be understated:
Quietly below the surface you find The Monster Vote
The “Monster Vote” is coming!
The polls use turn out models from the last couple of elections where democrats came out in droves. I think MOST of the polls are accurate based on those models. There are also quite a few that are fixed of course. But in the end I think this article is right, there are many people coming out to vote that never have! I have seen several stories in the last year talking about 60 year old people that are voting but never voted before.
I’m confused because the article is talking about primary votes. The primary was months ago.
FL run off primary vote.
I don’t think Pollsters should be using the 08 & 12 turnout models!
That was when the UNBEATABLE Obama was on the ticket! Now we have an unlikeable, untrustworthy old hag on the ticket!
Or pointing toward massive voter fraud via the least secure method - the absentee ballot.
The presidential primary for the Republicans was held in March. Trump won. The Primary to select Republican Senate and House Representatives to be shown on the November ballot as well as local and state selections is TOMORROW in FLORIDA, Aug. 30. Sheriffs, judges, various commissions, local and state are tomorrow.
Thank you Molly.
Busy day in FLA, and AZ. I look forward to you opining on FLA's results and if Kelli Ward unseats McCain. That would be a game changer IMHO....
That’s my bet. Another article mentioned that absentee ballots have been sent to every household. I’m guessing that every illegal alien household will return theirs.
When I stopped by the election office to pick up my absentee ballot shortly before catching my plane, there were numerous people registering to vote for the first time. There was one young lady and all the rest were mature...mostly men and active working men from what I saw. There was an air of excitement....or expectancy.... on their faces. It was as if they wanted to be part of something big. Trump caps were in evidence.
If people who have never voted before suddenly sign up to vote in a PRIMARY election, I think it safe to assume they will also vote in the general election. The only person running in primaries who is "different" (i.e. non career politician) is Trump.
OR, it will be massive voter fraud via. absentee ballot. But that should be distinguishable by a statistical difference between absentees and election day voters.
I agree on Kelli Ward. Here’s hoping for new blood in Arizona. In Florida I voted against Marco Rubio as the Republican on the November ballot and for Beruff.. I expect Patrick Murphy to win the Dem. vote to run for Senate against the Rep. winner tomorrow.
It’s going to be interesting!
OK, so the article was referring to the primary being held tomorrow then? The article wasn’t entirely clear on that.
I as well plan to not vote for Marco tomorrow. his willing compliance to work amnesty with that ambulance chaser Schumer kills it for me. we will see about the general.
I hate the trend of early voting and absentee ballots. People need to show up on the day. Only valid reasons for an absentee ballot in my opinion is military service, medical reasons (documented by doctor), or a business trip (documented by employer).
You’re correct. I agree that the article jumps around a lot. Makes it a bit confusing to say the least. I think specific definitions should be made in MOST articles as to what exactly they are talking about, and then follow in chronological order the events... Too many assume the reader is following their line of thought when it really too often takes reading the article over again after you finally find the clarifying line.
The article mentioned the Presidential Primary which was in March. This is when they were alerted to something being very different. The article is centered on tomorrows vote to prove the uselessness of all the old methods of polling. It’s gonna be interesting.
There are people who vote once in a while but usually don’t.
A huge influx of “never voted” strikes me as likely fraud.
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