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The polls are showing a very close race in several reliably red states this year. AZ, UT, GA and I even saw a poll from TX which was tied that shocked me.

Yet Trump has been polling better than GOP nominees of late in PA, MI and CT.

The only reason I can think of for that to be the case is that Trump's alpha male-ish populist appeal is doing well in the Rust Belt and places with large pockets of working class voters (and I hear lots of chatter that he could win places like Ohio's Mahoning County, which almost always goes Democrat) but is not going over as well in states with big moderate-to-conservative suburban areas. That at least would explain GA and AZ, which have large suburban/exurban rings that do have some moderates lurking around in there (I also heard the Utah poll that shows Trump in trouble there is actually quite old).

But it sounds like the Democrats are banking on driving up Hispanic turnout to win the state, which doesn't sound like a winner. Obama crushed with the Hispanic vote in 2012 and still didn't get AZ. He also won smashingly with Georgia blacks but didn't grab that state either.

I don’t buy that AZ has slipped at all. Don’t see evidence of that, but I’ve only been here 8 weeks. This is one of those states that the Dems always say is in play and isn’t.