It is still a built up urban area with lots of cover, well prepared with tunnels and IEDs - but the walls are closing in tight.
In the last few days several ISIS enclaves east and south of Damascus have been neutralized. I think the ISIS attack on the Turkish airport and the turmoil there following the coup attempt has caused major disruptions to the ISIS supply and reinforcement chain.
Yeah, ISIS is taking it hard across the board. About three months ago, we got a new Commanding General in our Central Command (CENTCOM), GEN Joe Votel. Since then, it has been a whole new war against ISIS.
Within weeks, everyone and their cousin launched major operations against ISIS, and US airstrikes went from four or five per day (half of which returned with all ordnance) to 20-40 per day, many addressing multiple targets (24 is now a normal day). The added Special Forces on the ground have enabled these strikes to be accurate.
The Iraqis launched on Fallujah (captured), the Kurds on Manbij (surrounded and nearing capture), the Syrian Gov’t struck across the desert towards Raqqa (since failed), and the Libyan Gov’t drove ISIS from 200 miles of Coastline and their stronghold of Sirte.
ISIS used to get more than 1,000 foreign recruits per month (Peaking around 2,000/month last year). Now the flow is down to a trickle, and casualties have been unprecedented in their brief history - 2-3 thousand in Fallujah, heading toward 2 thousand in Manbij, approaching 1,000 in Libya, and more elsewhere. Along with their killed, come additional wounded, desertions, and the loss of large sources of their revenue (Syrian and Libyan oil).
Airstrikes and drones have also been used with sudden intensity to pick off top leadership - ISIS itself reported that their “Caliph” Abu Bakr al Baghdadi himself was killed (no body presented though). Lots of top leaders and guys with special skills have been tracked and killed. They lacked the management capability to handle this many large fronts at their best, and now they are afraid to communicate, while also having to train new leaders on the job.
It has been the Summer of Death for ISIS.
I think that the Obama Administration wanted to capture Raqqa before the election, but the prudent thing would be to cutoff the border with Turkey first (capture al Bab after Manbij - close the “Marea Line”) first. We will see what they decide after Manbij. A dash for Raqqa first is possible if they throw a lot of resources at it, and assume more risk of a wave terrorists flowing into Europe for a civilian bloodfest with the ensuing political reaction. There are enough jihadis there already to conduct a high pace of operations against soft targets. I expect more atrocities in Europe, sadly.
The Administration will have better intel than we will though, so we’ll just have to see what is next. The Iraqis/Iranians are warming up for the big battle of Mosul, and conditions might be set there in time for the election as well.
It is still a built up urban area with lots of cover, well prepared with tunnels and IEDs - but the walls are closing in tight.
