Posted on 07/18/2016 3:55:08 PM PDT by ameribbean expat
Lawmakers voted strongly on Monday to renew Britain's ageing nuclear weapons system, a multi billion-pound project regarded as key to maintaining the country's status as a world power following its vote to leave the European Union.
Despite opposition from the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) and some in the opposition Labour Party, parliament approved the renewal of the Scottish-based nuclear-armed Trident submarines by 472 to 117 votes.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
And what is the estimate of when the muslims are expected to gain control?
A sensible estimate is ‘Never’.
I certainly agree there are too many Muslims in the UK (even allowing for most of them not being a threat in any real sense, they alter the culture of the nation and it’s a culture that I think should be defended) but hysterical ideas about Muslims gaining control make no demographic sense at all, and just makes people look silly and paranoid.
Excellent news.
Larger margin than I would have thought. Big loss for Corbyn (again). SNP all opposed.
Tens of thousands of jobs involved across the UK with this project.
I suspect the MOD leaned on a few people.
Plus, the uncertainty after BRexit probably made this a done deal.
I know. Next thing you know somebody will say London will have a Muslim mayor.
Recommend you find some consistency in your thought processes. You suggest my question is hysterical, silly and paranoid, but only after you concede "there are too many Muslims in the UK".
Next, you recognize that while "most of them are not a threat...they alter the culture of the nation".
Does the fact that a muslim was recently elected as Mayor of London strike you as perhaps part of an unmistakable trend? Do you include the accelerating increase in the birthrate of muslims in your analysis? Are you aware of one of the principle reasons for Brexit?
Are you familiar with their Quran? Do you believe it allows for muslims to be charitable to non-muslims; i.e. peaceful?
On your About Page, you pay a fine tribute to warriors who very recently gave their all in the service of their country. I will speculate most if not all were lost in battle with muslims or while supporting others who were.
What they would have to say about the issue?
Those are all rhetorical questions. Have a nice evening.
I honestly did not intend to suggest you were hysterical, silly, or paranoid. But I think a lot of people are on this issue and I wonder how much of what they have written you've encountered, while perhaps rarely seeing contrary opinions. There are people in the UK who are - quite rightly - worried about the threat of Islamist violence, who sometimes seem to go from those legitimate worries to some rather different places. We need to be very aware of the risk posed by those who want to do us harm, but too broad a focus makes it harder to see the ones who are truly dangerous and worrying about threats that don't exist can mask those that really do. There are close to three million Muslims in the United Kingdom. Even if only 1% are a threat (and I believe the number is higher than that but I am trying to make a particular point here), that's 30,000 people to worry about. If it's 3%, it's close to 100,000. A small minority can be dangerous, even where there is no risk of them ever actually being dominant.
My position and my thought processes are entirely consistent.
I believe there are too many Muslims in the United Kingdom. It's currently just under about 5% of the population, and I'd be much more comfortable if the number was considerably under half that. Prior to about 1980, it was about 1% of the population and there were few issues. Then it started climbing and more problems have developed.
But while the number is likely to climb, demographically it's likely to level off at somewhere around 10% at most somewhere between 2030 and 2050 - even extreme estimates (that I believe are too extreme and ignore some significant realities) say no more than about 15%. That's nowhere enough for Muslims to 'gain control' of the United Kingdom, or anything close to it.
Does the fact that a muslim was recently elected as Mayor of London strike you as perhaps part of an unmistakable trend
No, not really. He was elected because he was the Labour candidate and London was due for a Labour mayor, and the Conservative candidate was - well, not particularly conservative and he was a lousy candidate across the board.
Do you include the accelerating increase in the birthrate of muslims in your analysis?
Yes, I did - and so have the demographers who are the source of the figures I've mentioned on the likely growth of the Muslim population in the UK.
Are you aware of one of the principle reasons for Brexit?
Yes, very much so. I'm aware of all the reasons. I'm a British citizen (I also have Australian citizenship - dual citizen) and if you go back and look at some of the threads surrounding the recent referendum in the UK, you'll find me very active in some of them. Concern about immigration and especially about the immigration of certain groups that do not fit well into British culture was a significant factor in the referendum result.
Are you familiar with their Quran? Do you believe it allows for muslims to be charitable to non-muslims; i.e. peaceful?
Yes, I am familiar with the Quran. More familiar with it than the vast majority of Muslims, and especially of British Muslims. And, no, I don't believe a literal reading of the Quran allows for peaceful co-existence between Mulsims and non-Muslims. But the vast majority of people calling themselves Muslims in the UK are no more literal adherents of the Quran than the majority of professed Christians in the United Kingdom are literal adherents of the Bible. 60% of Britons call themselves Christians - but it's a long time since it was functionally a Christian country (regardless of the fact it has a state religion). How people self-describe themselves has little to do with how seriously they take their faith or how much it influences them.
On your About Page, you pay a fine tribute to warriors who very recently gave their all in the service of their country. I will speculate most if not all were lost in battle with muslims or while supporting others who were.
I served in the 1991 Gulf War myself. I also knew a couple of the people on that page. I taught one of them as his teacher. Yes, they died fighting people who were mostly Muslim, and they would have no time for Muslims who would do others harm. But nor do I.
What I won't do is wet my trousers about those who aren't dangerous because some people are easily excitable.
Muslims are not going to take over the United Kingdom. They are not going to take over Australia. They are not going to take over the United States. Or Canada. I have some concerns about some parts of mainland Europe and right at this moment, I have grave concerns about Turkey (a country that refuses to give me a tourist Visa because of something I wrote years ago about them being one of the few hopes for a truly secular state with an Islamic majority - a hope that now looks bleaker than it has in a long time).
I hate likes on message boards.
But, you get a “like” from me for this post :)
“But while the number is likely to climb, demographically it’s likely to level off at somewhere around 10% at most somewhere between 2030 and 2050”
I love your presence on this forum, but what in the world makes you think these estimates are reliable?
Level off? Why?
The main Norwegian statistical agency have a similar prognosis for Norway.
Yet, they have consistently underestimated muslim immigration the last couple of decades, which have consistently overshot their “worst case” scenarios.
The refugee spigot seems to be more of a permanent issue than a temporary one, then you have family reunifications and birth rates.
As long as there are greater economic benefits to living in the UK, Norway or Australia, people from less fortunate regions will continue to come.
And, as I am sure you know - a great number of of these impoverished places happens to be islamic countries.
I am also sure that you know it is immensly difficult to forsee the future.
But, immediate demographics is one place we actually can make fairly accurate calculations.
So. 5 percent muslim is rather meaningless.
Since the muslim population overall is young, whilst a bulk of the indigenous majority is old.
‘
What will give you a lot better picture of the future of Britain would be to look at the ethnic and religous composition of people under the age of 20.
That is the future.
Tens of millions of people above the fertile age are demographically irrelevant. They are just waiting to die to be quite crude. Thankfully they gave us Brexit before they left us.
Cheers,
Eurotwit who studied demography at the University of Queensland and got a first class honours.
Level off? Why?
Because I've read a lot of the research and calculations done into this subject in recent years and the studies that I regard as most reliable tend to favour the idea of such a leveling off, and even those that seem less reliable don't produce much higher numbers. The only places I'm seeing higher estimates are coming from people with no real expertise in the field extrapolating numbers in various ways.
The work of Frejka and Westhoff is probably the most persuasive, but it's in the context of other work.
Westoff, C., and Frejka, T. (2007), Fertility and Religiousness among European Muslims, paper presented to the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, New York.
Frejka, T., & Westhoff, C.F. (2008). Religion, religiousness and fertility in the US and Europe. European Journal of Population, 24, 531.
I'm an historian - I teach history primarily at secondary school level, but have done my time as a sessional lecturer at Universities. My primary degree is an MA in History from the University of Melbourne. Demographics isn't precisely my field, but it's well within cooee of it. Could I be wrong on this? Sure, I could be. But I certainly haven't seen anything to convince me I am and I've seen a lot of very flawed figures being thrown around on the issue.
Thank you very much. Some things just seem to make sense.
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