Morning Consult Poll (where Cankles leads): Internals

Morning Consult ^ | 7/18/2016 | self

[LS]

Morning Consults requires you to register to get the crosstabs, so I volunteered. The way they cross-reference this is Byzantine, but it appears these are the numbers that repeat no matter how they slice it.

Poll of 2002 "registered" voters. Cankles leads 41-39 with MOE of 2.

D 37%, R 29, I 34; 53-47 women over men.

Cankles unfavorable among women: 58% Cankles favorable Dem: 75% Cankles unfavorable under 29: 60% College unfavorable: 61% Black favorable 75% (vs. Obama at 84%)

[LS]

I think you can see, this is very, very favorable to Trump. It's still slightly overweighted to Ds, heavily overweighted to women, and even then, large majorities of women and young people view Cankles unfavorably and even blacks aren't on board where they are with Zero.

Even among blacks, 59% say the country is headed in the "wrong direction." Connect the dots, people.

[patro]

Polling data is irrelevant.

[mrs9x]

Dems are not going to have an 8 point advantage in November. Just isn’t going to happen.

[Robert DeLong]

Cankles leads 41-39 with MOE of 2.

[Grampa Dave]

Hillary Clinton has promised to be Barack Obama in a pantsuit, which means the downward trend will continue as the Democrat practice of “Promise Everything, Deliver Nothing, Blame Others” goes on*

*Obama’s Divide-and-Rule Presidency American Thinker ^ | July 18, 2016 | Jeffrey T. Brown

[LS]

You know that, I know that, but the neverTrump/Dems are just oh-so-sure they will.

[LS]

No, it is relevant. You just have to have the right polling data.

It’s like saying a doctor’s diagnosis is irrelevant: it is if he’s looking for cancer and you have athlete’s foot.

[BobinIL]

This poll is of

Registered voters? strike one

D 37%-R29% strike two

Women 53% Men 47% strike three

This poll is crap manufactured to make Hillary look like she is doing much better than she really is.

[drop 50 and fire for effect]

The data is not irrelevant, the conclusions the pollsters draw from it are irrelevant.

Polling this far out is really only useful in identifying trends (assuming that the pollsters keep the same parameters for their sample over each iteration of their poll.

What this tells us is:

-Hillary is not as popular as Obama, even among the Dem’s most reliable voting bloc

-Hillary is broadly viewed unfavorably even among key Dem constituencies

My interpretation (based on limited info) is that Dem voters are not sold on their presumptive nominee. Hillary continues to fail to connect outside the Dem establishment base.

If Trump can frame this election as a referendum on Hillary and present himself as a valid alternative, he can win going away.

Note: While Black voters cannot (for a host of reasons) publicly or even privately break with Obama, a Hillary v. Trump contest provides an opportunity for a portion of that electorate to vent their frustration with the Dem party. If Trump can get over 20% of the black vote, his task becomes a lot easier.

[NYRepublican72]

D+8 is basically Obama 2008.
D+5 is roughly Obama 2012.
R+1 is roughly Bush 2004.

This is where the election will be won. If Trump can get it to roughly D+2 or D+3, he’ll win.