'Australia has a government' (very narrow 'conservative' win in Australian election)

RESPECTED election analyst Antony Green is predicting the Coalition will get the seats it needs to form government.

While the official seat count still sits at 63 for the Coalition, the ABC analyst said he thought he could “pretty accurately predict” the Coalition would achieve between 75 to 77 seats.

“All the seats which are in doubt are starting to trend towards the Coalition so 76 may be an underestimate, it may be 77, we’ll see,” Mr Green said during an appearance on the ABC 7pm news bulletin.

He said the Coalition definitely had 73 seats and it needed to gain three of the six seats still in play, to form government.

The seats of Capricornia, Herbert and Flynn were the seats to watch as the Labor Party was well ahead in these seats a week ago, but they were all “line-ball” now.

“All the trend in the postal votes has been towards the Coalition and at this stage they will certainly overtake Labor on the remaining postal votes and then it comes down to absent and pre-polls,” Mr Green explained.

“At this stage it looks like the Coalition should get to 76 though I must say on the chamber it is 76 plus or minus one so we’re saying between 75 and 77.”

Headline is taken from the main news.com.au website link to this article, rather than the article headline as it is more descriptive.

Anthony Green is generally regarded as the most accurate analyser of Australian election results. It isn't impossible he's wrong, but if he's calling it, most people take it seriously. It will be another week before all postal votes are counted and the election is finalised, but at this point, we really can consider the election called.

And it is a very narrow win for the conservative Liberal/National Coalition.

This is a mixed result as far as I and a lot of Australian conservatives are concerned - better a coalition government than Labor, but the coalition is currently headed by a centrist moderate not a true conservative and while it still has plenty of conservatives among its numbers their voice is not that loud. That may change - the Liberal Party vote dropped in this election while the National Party vote increased. The Nationals tend more conservative than the Liberals so that may bring the coalition back towards a more conservative position again. And while he will hold on for the moment, Malcolm Turnbull's hold on the Prime Ministership is in danger from this result - the whole reason he was installed was a perception he'd do well electorally and he hasn't. He's turned a large majority into a razor thin margin.

The House of Representatives has 150 Members, so 76 is an outright majority - and as the government is normally expected to provide the Speaker out of their numbers, 76 is really 75. On the current count, it is expected the Coalition has won at least 75 seats - with two independents, Bob Katter and Cathy McGowan who have said they will guarantee 'confidence and supply', that gives them 77 and minority government. They may have won 76 or 77 which creates a slightly better margin (and either would mean it was not a minority government which is symbolically important).

This is not a good result for conservatism in Australia. It's just not the disaster that a Labor government would have been. And it might be able to be turned into something better over the next few years. It's hard to see it getting much worse.

The Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers Party (their current name) basically run in the Senate and our Senate can take a long time to get a final result because of the sheer number of candidates and parties - we won't know for at least a week. Looking at the current results, I'd say they are still in the running to win something in the Senate.

In my state of Victoria, they currently sit at 13th out of 38 with 0.1320 of a quota after first preferences. I'm not going to even try to explain exactly what that means :) but in simple terms, you want to be in the top third after first preferences to have a chance. They are just at that level (technically they'd want to be 12th rather than 13th to be in the top third, but they are only 7 votes behind the 12th so I'd call that a tie really.)

In NSW, they are 7 out of 41 with .2515 of a quota - that's not bad at all.

In Queensland, 10th out of 39 with .1343 of a quota - in the ball park.

In Western Australia, 7th out of 29 with .2292 of a quota. Pretty healthy.

In South Australia, 9th out of 25 with .0898 of a quota. Realistically not likely.

In Tasmania, 9th out of 23 with 0.1678 of a quota. Probably too far down the list to be realistic but not impossible.

It will all come down to preferences and that can be really complex and will be at least a week before we know. But they are not in a bad position. Realistically I think their best chance for a Senator is probably in WA. And even a single Senator has to be listened to.

It is a narrow win, but not a “very narrow” win.

The Coalition is on track for an outright majority in the lower house, maybe 77 seats (out of 150), and has the support of three centrist-to-conservative independent and minor party members, for a total of support from 80 (out of 150). This is a smaller majority than the Coalition had during the prior parliament, but that majority was due to a landslide victory.

The Coalition along with centrist-to-conservative minor parties also have a majority in the upper house. The multiplicity of parties in the house will make some aspects of governing tricky, but that’s built into the design of government in Australia. In that country, whichever large party forms government in the lower house will almost inevitably have to deal with other parties in the upper house in matters that must pass both houses.

The Coalition also appears to have won a majority of the nationwide popular vote. Although nobody is elected based on the nationwide popular vote, it is comforting to think the Coalition has broad support and well as support in sufficient number of districts and states.

I still call it a very narrow win. We still have a real possibility of a technically hung Parliament (75 seats) and while 77 is possible, 76 is more likely which is a functional majority of 1.

Any of those numbers will make this the third narrowest victory in Australian Federal Election history, except for the two hung Parliaments and the 1913 and 1961 elections.

And Bob Katter is the only one of the independents, I think can be truly classed as conservative on any real level. Yes, I'd call McGowan and Sharkie centrists which is better than them being on the left, but the problem with the current government has been how much it's been pulled to the centre.

You're a lot more confident about the Senate than I am, but I hope you're right.

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