Economic Optimism Chills As Summer Begins: IBD/TIPP

Investors Business Daily ^ | 7/05/2016 | ED CARSON

[expat_panama]

Pessimism about the U.S. economy has fallen to its lowest level since last November, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a bad sign for consumer spending as Apple (AAPL), Gap (GPS) and other consumer companies report sluggish demand.

The sentiment gauge fell 2.7 points, or 5.6%, to 45.5, matching November's reading. The index has been below the neutral 50 level since April 2015.

The poll's Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy's prospects in the next six months, dropped 6.9 points to 36.7, falling 15.8%. That's the lowest since a matching reading last September. Since July 2008, the economic outlook measure has only been lower twice -- during the 2011 debt ceiling standoff and the 2013 partial government shutdown.

The weak overall and outlook readings are a bad sign for consumer spending...

Stock markets have bounced back in recent days. If that continues, confidence may quickly rebound...

...gloom was broad based, with all of the 21 demographics groups slipping... ...55% say that we are not in a recession, 38% believe we are in one."

The U.S. economy added just 38,000 jobs in May after April's sluggish 123,000, according to Labor Department data. The June report is due out on Friday, with economists expecting a stronger but still so-so payroll gain of 180,000

[expat_panama]

Feelings are where we live and why we act and they're also very difficult to measure.  Here's how IBD's measured people's feelings about the economy over the past: year:

Note that right now " ...55% say that we are not in a recession, 38% believe we are in one."

Long ago JFKennedy said something to the effect that while feelings were not reality, they did affect reality.

[expat_panama]

Whoa, happy mid-week already!  Stock prices are fast moving too as our newborn IBD designated uptrend hits its first "distribution day".    Not a prob for precious metals as silver punches a new top at $20.34 (gold - $1,371.01).   The Barchart Futures Heat Map sees more of the same today w/ Metals +0.67% and Stock Indexes -0.86%.

More econ stats today:

7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index
8:30 AM Trade Balance
10:00 AM ISM Services
10:30 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes --wait, didn't we just hear from the FOMC yesterday?

For while we're waking up this morning:

'We're All Keynesians Now,' but Hard Reality Awaits - Jeremy Warner, DT
It's Time for the Austrians to Rethink Business Cycle - John Tamny, RCM
Trump's Right That Trade Is Hurting Jobs Now - Jordan Weissmann, Slate
The Rage of Those Left Behind By the Elite - Aaron Renn, Manhattan Inst.
Real Libor Scandal May Be Who Isn't in Court - Mark Gilbert, Bloomberg
How Will the Brexit Vote Shake Out? - James Surowiecki, The New Yorker
Ok, So Brexit Wasn't a 'Lehman Moment' - Niall Ferguson, Boston Globe
Derivatives Were Hardly Cause of '08 - David D'Amato, American Spectator

[wastoute]

No problem! The Fed can just increase QED to $185 Billion a month. Problem solved.

[buffaloguy]

I noticed that the fireworks this year were much less than last year. Even the 4th seemed quieter.

[citizen]

I dislike rooting for a really bad economy BUT -— Comey refused (or was forced) not to do his job so there it is.

Comey strongly made the case(s) for criminal referral but then punted and basically left it up to the voters. These days, too many them are woefully uninformed and easily manipulated by the liberal globalist pols and their media lackeys.

A few more months of a faltering economy would be a small price to pay if it buys us a common-sense, USA-first president.

[Ahithophel]

Pessimism about the U.S. economy has fallen to its lowest level since last November, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index[.]

Falling pessimism is a good thing because it indicates that optimism is rising. This author must be a product of common core education.

[expat_panama]

Falling pessimism is a good thing...   ...education.

Huh!  Seems everyone here (including yours truly) missed that IBD writer gaff.  The numbers show that it was optimism that fell, not pessimism   Maybe the writer's eye was distracted by the fact that the 'pessimism' side of the index showed lower numbers --and a lower pessimism side number meant more pessimism not less than if the pessimism number was higher meaning less.

 

I think I need a Tylenol...

[citizen]

I think it’s one of those up is down and down is up things.

Should be either “Pessimism...has risen to lowest its level” or “Optiimism...has fallen to lowest its level”

[citizen]

Yes, again, it is the up/down-down/up thing.

I think I need a Tylenol...

Make mine 3 aspirin in 3 fingers of booze.