Posted on 06/25/2016 8:05:31 AM PDT by detective
For the weak-minded among us who continue to believe in polling data, the Brexit vote shows – yet again – what a biased absurdity the polls have become.
But delusions and obfuscation runs deep in the mainstream trenches.
Nate Cohn at the New York Times writes that "[i]t was not a cataclysmic polling failure[.] ... [I]t's hard to argue that this was a big polling failure."
Sure it wasn't. Once you are done rolling around on the floor in laughter at claims that this wasn't a massive polling failure, read on.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
This is a good analysis of the biased polls in the UK prior to the Brexit vote.
I don’t know how you do polling in a world where no one answers their phone.
American Thinker has been debunking poll after poll all of June - they demonstrate time and again the absurdity of reported results. Nice work they’re doing.
Clinton up by 14 points , Oh they work , LOL
Polling is designed to Shape opinions not measure them.
“... the Brexit side won by 4%, 52% to 48%.
“Not a single one of the well known polling aggregators/predictors picked Brexit in their last-minute final projections.
“Elections Etc. had the Remain side up by 6.6%, 53.3% to 46.7%.
Number Cruncher Politics had the Remain side up by 6%, 53% to 47%.
What UK Thinks: EU had the Remain side up by 4%, 52% to 48%.
The Financial Times had the Remain side up by 2%, 48% to 46%.
Britain Elects had the Remain side up by 1.6%, 50.8% to 49.2%.
HuffPost Pollster had the Remain side up by 0.5%, 45.8% to 45.3%.
The Economist’s poll tracker had the race tied at 44% apiece...”
We are at a point where polling is a tool used to shape public opinion, not measure it.
Polls = Propoganda
“The polls were wrong because the polling industry collectively and deliberately and cynically manipulated its own findings. In other words, the pollsters lied to us all...”
This is why your personal observations are a far better indicator of direction. When Trump has tens of thousands at his rallies and Hillary has to use tight-focus cameras to mask the fact that there are few at hers, then the polls say “she is ahead,” you have to question their accuracy (or more likely honesty).
That’s the truth. But I believe that it backfires: people who like the result get complacent and don’t vote, but those on the losing side get more motivated to do so.
Exactly. While I wouldn’t want to paint with a broad brush and say that all polls are totally fake, I will say that I never pay attention to any polls at all.
I think that phone calls are made, people on sidewalks are questioned, work is done, numbers are tabulated, and THEN the poll people publish the numbers that they prepared before any of that started — the numbers that are designed to push public opinion is a designated direction: “Oh look! 68% of the people trust Hillary on national security issues! I guess that email server thing really IS a rightwing conspiracy!! Now I know how I feel on that issue!”
Actually I think the polls were accurate in this case.
They showed it to be razor close with most analysts figuring large turnout would favor Brexit which is what happened.
For an anomaly one needs to look no further than the recent primary in CA. There Bernie was significantly ahead but he got pounded.
What happened?
Fraud.
Which should give Trump and everyone else some concerns about the upcoming election.
Yup!
Some of the polls did show it to be close, but even the closest only had the thing tied. The furthest out picked stay by 6.6—a miss of over ten points. The average miss was 7 points—I don’t think that turnout alone explains it.
I guess it always depends on who is being polled.
They’ll get another shot at it.
Like always, they will have another referendum and another etc...until the vote they need is gotten.
I have always said that any poll conducted prior to the second Tuesday every other November is nothing more than a fund raising device for one side or the other.
My biggest take away from the 2000 Presidential election was the Democratic Party’s attempt to over turn the ONLY poll that counts. Well, that and the loss of the equal protection clause of the Constitution - I live in one of the non-selected counties with a significant conservative population.
These “polls” are not designed to reflect public opinion but rather to shape public opinion.
The great frauds of recent history
guns
2K
global warming
Obama was vetted as a presidential candidate
I’m not a muslim
Brexit will bring the apocalypse
You left out the Clinton Foundation.
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