We are within ten years of self-driving cars being the trend. I think within twenty years....almost no kid will be taking driver’s ed and that less than one-half of twenty-year-olds will have a license.
And in ten years we will still be within ten years of self-driving cars being the trend.
The problems with complete, door-to-door self-driving cars are so immense, they may never be solved.
Would you trust your life to a self-flying airplane that had no pilot onboard? That is a relatively benign environment, where the airports are very tightly controlled, the standards for runway and taxiway markings are extremely high, the maintenance level is immaculate, and yet we still haven't even tried to remove the pilot from the cockpit.
The problems with surface streets are infinitely more severe. Potholes. Snow. Faded lane markings. Pedestrians. Construction zones.
Self-driving cars will for the next 30 years or more be nothing more than an intelligent cruise control for freeway use.