Romney will lose and Trump will win (Saturbray)

This is how we know that LOVE is: Jesus Christ laid down his life for us. And we ought to lay down our lives for our brothers. 1 John 3:16

We just lost a special election here in Oregon where the establishment ran a self-prescribed moderate and lost twice in a row. When all of the experts try to explain that you have to run the perfect candidate to satisfy the moderates you need to ask them by what proof do they come up with that truth? There is more proof of Global Warming than moderate Repubs winning. As they point to all the Tea Party candidates who cost us elections we have seen in Blue Oregon that moderates don’t fare any better and will be painted as rabid conservatives so why not run rabid conservatives who can defend themselves.

We ran a really nice guy who has a great family and is a small business owner who in many ways agrees with conservatives however he never really understood conservatism or how it relates to your freedom. He not only didn’t have the ability to articulate it but he was told to make sure not to say anything that would offend the moderates or the media so he did not or could not. In addition the campaign as well as the Party used every means possible to make sure the volunteers never came in contact with the people to potentially say something that would offend voters or the media. So to control the message and make sure no Tea Party message went out they ran the entire outreach by phone banks. What we ended up with was a vanilla campaign and unenthused voters who never showed up with their ballots.

The excuses are as varied as the imaginations of those who ran this anemic campaign, from being outspent 5 to 1 or a 14% voter registration margin to mailers that lied, but in the end the Republicans never showed up. When you don’t excite the conservatives you never get the money or their votes. These of course are obstacles to a campaign but they can be overcome by an aggressive attack with a candidate who can take the fight to the enemy. You will never beat the Dems by playing defense since they will always fire up their troops and get their voters out at the end.

We tried helping by running a strictly grassroots campaign to try to finally break the 35 year drought our district has had electing Dems and in the end couldn’t do it. We were hamstrung by the Party and the campaign to the point of our precinct organizers being told not to organize their precincts or go door to door for fear of them volunteers saying the wrong thing. When they were asked if they could knock doors to bring in the ballots for our vote by mail we were told absolutely not, they only wanted phone callers and nothing else. This way they could protect their precious message of nothingness.

As bad and incompetent as this campaign may have appeared it is a perfect mirror of what the Mitt campaign will look like. Just like Oregon the national experts know exactly how and who to promote to win the election and manage the message. They believe they have the perfect vanilla anti-Tea Party message to win over those precious moderates when what they think they know is the exact opposite. Nationally we need a strong crusader for our message to move and educate those moderates or we will have the same exact result we had for our election. There is no difference between Oregon and the liberal cities. The free stuff message Ohbummer will be spreading which will be going against a stiff liberal Republican trying to outgive him and will never work.

With Mittwit we are heading down the path of destruction of the Party. Not only will it further divide the Tea Party from the Country Club as it did in Oregon it has almost zero chance of succeeding. We need to unite the Party and the only one who has a chance of doing that is with a Conservative. A Conservative can bring the Tea Party on board where half of your activists exist as well as reluctantly bring the Country Club as they have to compare him to Ocommie which should be no comparison even to them. Our election should be a huge warning that in a district that could have been won was lost by the experts in the Country Club who manipulated, bought and used Stalinist central planning techniques to manage the loss.

They will blame the voter imbalance, money and any number of excuses but it is a very good primer of what is going to happen in the fall if we nominate Romney who does not generate enthusiasm from the Conservative base and the Party relies on moderating their way to victory. His stiff demeanor will not connect with liberals and will be painted as a radical, rich, old white Conservative no matter how liberal he actually is. He will have no defense against those charges other than being more liberal and alienating the base who won’t vote.

The bottom line is here in Oregon we were lectured and manipulated by the so called experts how this candidate gave us the perfect opportunity to win and the experts were wrong. These experts are either incompetent, corrupt or in alliance with the other side. In the end they get paid the same whether the candidate wins or loses so what have they got to lose. These managers are not ideologues but hired guns to manage a campaign and as long as the phone calls are being made and meetings being attended then the losses were managed perfectly. Choose wisely because there are some powerful people wanting this election to turn out exactly how they want it and right now is going according to plan, just like ours did. Don’t let happen what happened to Oregon happen to America so be a bit pragmatic to unite and bust your butt behind Gingrich to defeat the Country Club. He is not perfect but right now it is him or the Country Club and a sure loss to Obama just like Oregon.

I wrote this in February of 2012 and reprinted it for people to remember how accurate I have been compared to the establishment. I have predicted the Presidency for the past four elections straight when they have been wrong on 3 of those four. I predicted that Trump would win this with Cruz second when everyone was pontificating on Bush and Walker. The one I am still waiting on is my Bernie longshot which is still possible.

This was to show how wrong the echo chamber is and I will now predict Trump in a tsunami for the General election. He will win big if he ignores his managers and trusts the people. He is the best candidate we have had since #NeverReagan. If he sticks to what he is doing he will be the next President of the United States.

If Sanders loses it will be due to fraud. It’s not always possible to fully take fraud into acct when making predictions. I absolutely believe Barone [who has since come out of the closet as totally Establishment] called the Obama/Romney race correctly. [People really were tired of Obama by then, and just did not come out for him.] Massive fraud in one state—Ohio iirc—moved Obama into the winning column.

It’s certainly true that Romney was/is a RINO, and there was next to no enthusiasm for him. But four years of miserable economics had soured enough voters to undercut Obama’s edge. Unenthused people were ready to let Romney have a shot at it. Still it was very close; close enough for massive fraud, largely focussed on one state, to flip the entire election.

(To support your thesis, btw, had the GOP run an actual conservative, the election would not have been close enough for even wholesale fraud to alter the outcome.)

I am pretty sure I read this 4 years ago Bray after Willard blitzed Newt with a ton of nasty negative ads in Florida. He turned the election around and Newt couldn’t muster the dough to fight back. Your forecasts proved correct and while I wanted to remain upbeat about the impending election, I realized that Romney would not come close to inspiring the troops the way that Gingrich could. We all got a glimpse of Newt’s brilliance in S. Carolina during the debate. Pity he couldn’t stand toe to toe with the cash needed to stick a dagger in Mittens.

Sanders never had a snowball’s chance in hell. He’s done a remarkable job in stirring up the democRAT base, but Killery and her forces had the nomination locked up before the first vote was cast.

Sanders loss will be due to whatever chicanery is necessary to give a veneer of legitimacy to the nomination of Killery. Nothing more needs to be said.

Romney’s problem was multi-fold. I think first an foremost was that he is a Mormon. Second, that he was weak, in as much he was not prepared to get into a street fight with a degenerate race-hustler and his minions. Third he was a democRAT at heart, and a republican by heredity.

Here is the thing about Trump: he does not have the Barry Goldwater/Ronald Reagan/Bill Buckley handbook understanding of conservatism.

Instead, he has an intuitive and instinctual grasp of what EMBODIES most of what I call “American Conservatism.” That is, national self preservation (like Washington and Hamilton and Lincoln and TR) which is not Reagan’s ideological war on communism. However, in contrast to Reagan, who did not “get” the Islamic threat until 1986 or 87, Trump got it immediately. He may not be able to philosophically elaborate what is wrong with Islam, but knows it’s a threat and that we need to stop it “until we figure out what’s going on.”

Trump is a true “free trader” like Washington and Lincoln and TR in that the RULES applying to both sides must be equal. I could go on.

What is clear is that the remaining “neverTrump” holdouts fall into one of two categories: 1) the big government at-the-trough guys who see their very livelihood, access, and social position in jeapordy and 2) the hard line social conservatives who deep down resent Trump’s divorces and wealth and status and think such a Philistine who cites “Two Corinthians” can’t possibly lead a serious counter-revolution. (Here I think mostly of David Limbaugh).

The first group needs to just be crushed and flushed. They will never help achieve any lasting change.

SOME of the second group need to be convinced by actions, though unfortunately most will just be vindictively waiting for the “SEE? I told you moment.”

The new Trump coalition must be big and strong enough to overcome both of these subgroups.

In 2012 I became a Romney supporter out of necessity because I just could not stomach a second Obama term. It was so disappointing how Romney seemed to take his foot off the gas during the general election. It was quite a lackluster campaign and the selection of Paul Ryan just added to the dullness of it.

That race convinced me that plain-vanilla country-club Republicans who run non-offensive "nice guy" campaigns will get beat by Democrats just about every time.

With Trump, we have a fighter and we are about to see just how energized his voting base will be in November. Not since Reagan has a GOP candidate really stirred the pot as Trump has.

The Democrat race is getting very interesting. The Dem establishment was trying to get Bernie to drop out a la Cruz but it backfired. Now Bernie is determined to fight on to the bitter end. As he should. He is much closer in won delegates to Crooked Hillary than Ted Cruz ever was to Trump. The apportionment of delegates in each of the states is just not right. For instance Bernie blew her away in West Virginia by double digits but only got 19 delegates to her 18.

Also, if Crooked HIllary does get indicted or otherwise forced out of the race, Bernie will stand to get the nomination in her place. The idea that the Democrats can just insert Joe Biden is now preposterous now that Bernie has kept it so close. Had Bernie been easily dispatched as was expected, then yes, Biden would be a real possibility as it looks like Crooked Hillary might not even make it to the convention.

That's unfortunate. I have had the experience of going door to door in support of a candidate. It is the most successful way I know to advocate on behalf of someone. If the other candidate doesn't go door to door, it is like having one team on the field scoring points, while the other side has cheerleaders making their side feel good.

Or to put it another way, remember the advice that your ships will be safe if you keep them in the harbor, but that is not what ships are for. Similarly, you can avoid possible embarrassment by keeping your supporters away from the voters, but it doesn't make certain defeat any easier to bear. What fools!

GOPe’s strategy for winning elections is to position a chameleon who can blend into the background, and hope people will accidently vote for him. And he can then slip into office by the side door.

Of course, once in office he has to continue to blend into the background if he hopes to be reelected.

So, when we unite behind such a man, we find that we have won nothing and accomplished nothing. Because he dares not stand for anything.

Interesting post...your analysis of the remaining anti-Trump groups seems right on.

The second group "the hard line social conservatives who deep down resent Trump’s divorces and wealth and status and think such a Philistine who cites “Two Corinthians” can’t possibly lead a serious counter-revolution. (Here I think mostly of David Limbaugh)." seem to be in conflict with what I consider true Christian and conservative (don't envy success) values.

My support of Trump is both gut level (The general is a winner) and analytical - his common sense values and boldness in advocating them makes perfect sense and are desperately needed.

Outstanding. I just take issue with this sentence, as I think you’re being generous:

“With Mittwit we are heading down the path of destruction of the Party. Not only will it further divide the Tea Party from the Country Club as it did in Oregon it has almost zero chance of succeeding.”

Perhaps word it like this in the future:

“With Mittwit we are heading down the path of destruction of the Party. Not only will it further divide the Tea Party from the Country Club as it did in Oregon it has ABSOLUTELY zero chance of succeeding.”

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