Posted on 05/19/2016 11:41:19 AM PDT by MNDude
EW YORK/WELLINGTON - Erik Duhaime is a passive stock market investor, but he isn't afraid to short Donald Trump or go long on Hillary Clinton.
The 28-year-old from Cambridge, Massachusetts, trades on PredictIt, an online political stock market that allows users to wager small amounts of money on "yes" or "no" predictions about whether an event will occur. That includes who will win the U.S. presidential election in November.
PredictIt attracts everyone from campaign volunteers to political junkies.
In mid-April, about 30 PredictIt traders gathered at a bar in New York to watch the state's primary results roll in.
"I think it's a good source of collective wisdom," said Brian Hegarty, who was at the event.
Hegarty, who worked for Kasich's campaign, reads political news, but also relied on picking up information through his campaign experience. That didn't always translate to a bet in favor of Kasich. He said he put money on Republican candidate Marco Rubio to win the Minnesota caucus because he had overheard someone who was working for the Florida senator express confidence about Rubio's chances. It turned out to be one of the few states Rubio won before dropping out in mid-March.
Duhaime, the MIT student, said he usually bets against candidates he believes are likely to flame out.
"For me, Trump was one of those people," he said. "I shorted Trump way back in July, and it hasn't been fun watching."
After Trump's win in Indiana in early May, Duhaime was down nearly $1,000, about a third of the money he put into PredictIt.
(Excerpt) Read more at torontosun.com ...
I read the article twice. I see nothing in the article that talks about a brokered convention. Help me out please.
There are only three possible reasons the Republican establishment would push a brokered convention:
1. They really want to win, and think they will have a better chance by dumping the candidate that has won the most votes in the primaries of any previous Republican candidate. (IMHO - not likely).
2. They acknowledge that Trump could win, but care more about retaining their personal power than about the will of the people or the future of the nation. (IMHO - likely for some)
3. Control of the Republican party includes those who were put there as operatives to ensure eventual victory to the left. (IMHO - definitely includes some, even if a small minority).
Thanks D1; appreciate the link.
The democratic party is going down in flames and the media ignores
But they are the ones making statements that the republican party was about to implode on itself and would split, now very less likely
Sure Mitt Romney is out there being a douche but at the end of the day, the guy is a giant loser and nobody cares about what he thinks anymore
With Cruz and another rival, John Kasich, now out of the race, Trump had risen to 94 cents by Monday."
Means that there is 6 cents betting that there will be a brokered convention.
“:^)
It’s just propaganda designed to stoke the fantasies of #NeverTrump cultists. If one checks the prediction markets, they can readily see that the odds for a brokered convention are very low.
It’s just propaganda designed to stoke the fantasies of #NeverTrump cultists. If one checks the prediction markets, they can readily see that the odds for a brokered convention are very low.
Lol. Oh, ok. Good catch. The title is r e a l l y s t r e t c h i n g.
Trump’s going to have his 1,237 committed delegates, and a lot of the non-Trump delegates are also anti-GOP-E, and are on board with the Trump program.
I cannot imagine shenanigans of any serious sort happening with the credentials and rules committees, and I am sure that Manafort is keeping an eye on those.
The scenario that would lead to a brokered convention is a Sirhan Sirhan scenario, and we pray tat does NOT happen.
Not just that. There are the NeverCruz types here that will take this as absolute proof that Cruz is working on a coup.
And what a bunch of degenerate gamblers who know nothing besides what the guy next to him just bet is important because?
These betting polls are nothing more than derivatives.
Most, if not all, of the decisions on how to bet are derived from other non-financial polls.
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