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Evaluating the Political Chess Board ( Trump vs. Clinton)
Dilbert.com ^ | 5/19/2016 | Scott Adams

Posted on 05/19/2016 8:54:50 AM PDT by GilGil

Trump has pulled ahead of Clinton nationally in both the new FOX poll and the Rasmussen Poll. And Trump passed Clinton in favorability according to the newest national poll on that topic. The Megyn Kelly interview (including the hyping of it ahead of time) marked Trump’s third-act turn.

By the way, Anderson Cooper of CNN said last night that CNN finds the FOX polling to be reliable and transparent, in case you wondered.

Meanwhile, Clinton is losing one primary after another to a dehydrated dandelion in her own party. That doesn’t bode well for the coming cage fight with Godzilla.

(Excerpt) Read more at blog.dilbert.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; clinton; election; trump
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I love one of the Tweets featured in this article which explains why Trump is doing so well. After this Egyptian airplane crash, he is going to do even better.

" Hillary: Women,Women,Women,Women,Women Trump: America,America,America, America"

1 posted on 05/19/2016 8:54:50 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil

“I’m teeming with confirmation bias, but from my kitchen counter, I don’t see how it can go any direction but a Trump landslide from here.”


2 posted on 05/19/2016 9:00:14 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil
Confirmation Bias is a fascinating subject.
3 posted on 05/19/2016 9:05:56 AM PDT by Theophilus (Always vote. Always vote your conscience. God wins every election.)
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To: Theophilus

It seems that a lot of things are breaking in Trump’s favor right now and that Team Hillary is falling apart.


4 posted on 05/19/2016 9:10:40 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Pray he doesn't scratch.

5 posted on 05/19/2016 9:13:27 AM PDT by Theophilus (Always vote. Always vote your conscience. God wins every election.)
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To: GilGil

I wonder what his take is on that stupid Soros commercial with the women in Trump t-shirts lip-synching his words. I wonder if that’s an example of the “graduated exposure” that simply conditions people to get the impression that he’s already president. That commercial is on Fox News 24/7, I can only imagine how often they air it on MSDNC.


6 posted on 05/19/2016 9:13:43 AM PDT by scottinoc
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To: scottinoc

I’ve not seen the commercial!


7 posted on 05/19/2016 9:15:17 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil
Anderson Cooper of CNN said last night that CNN finds the FOX polling to be reliable and transparent . . .

Don't get overconfident about this election (not even the GOP convention). First, Cooper is correct that the Fox polling is reasonably good. That said, interpreting the results is always a challenge and particularly difficult this year. Some groups of voters are garrulous and always willing to talk; the challenge is getting them back on topic so you can finish the survey. Others hang up (if they answer at all). The percentage of Trump supporters who respond is likely very different from the

We used to mostly know how to convert polling results to meaningful predictions, but that has become increasingly difficult over the past eight years. This year, I think even the best professionals are as close to clueless as they have ever been.

8 posted on 05/19/2016 9:25:50 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Somebody who agrees with me 80% of the time is a friend and ally, not a 20% traitor. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: GilGil

I think America is going to find Donald Trump to be a fundamentally likeable person. They may not agree with him, but he comes across as a regular guy. Clinton is fundamentally unlikeable and comes across as a phony.

This could turn into a landslide.


9 posted on 05/19/2016 9:27:13 AM PDT by P-Marlowe (Freep mail me if you want to be on my Fingerstyle Acoustic Guitar Ping list.)
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To: Theophilus
Confirmation Bias is a fascinating subject.

It is extremely prevalent in the social sciences and, of course, climate science. Google Reproducibility Project. Basically, most social science studies, including in psychology, are irreproducible.

10 posted on 05/19/2016 9:34:19 AM PDT by jalisco555 ("In a time of universal deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act". George Orwell.)
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To: Pollster1

In the case of the Indiana polling the polling was pin point accuracy so was New York and many others.

It is not about being overconfident. Often using the word overconfident is code for stay on your ass and do nothing so nothing is risked.

Trump is talented on so many levels that he is overwhelming Team Hillary because she has no talent.

Seeing all these positive signs for Trump means that you pummel Hillary’s weaknesses mercilessly to finish her off once and for all. It is not about overconficence.


11 posted on 05/19/2016 9:35:08 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: jalisco555
Basically, most social science studies, including in psychology, are irreproducible.

But they want to put you in jail or worse if you contradict them.

12 posted on 05/19/2016 9:35:55 AM PDT by Theophilus (Always vote. Always vote your conscience. God wins every election.)
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To: scottinoc
I wonder what his take is on that stupid Soros commercial with the women in Trump t-shirts lip-synching his words. I wonder if that’s an example of the “graduated exposure” that simply conditions people to get the impression that he’s already president. That commercial is on Fox News 24/7, I can only imagine how often they air it on MSDNC.

The message in that commercial is that angry, bitter, unattractive women hate Trump. And so should you. LOL.

13 posted on 05/19/2016 9:36:16 AM PDT by jalisco555 ("In a time of universal deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act". George Orwell.)
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To: Theophilus

Scratching is for amateurs. Trump is anything but an amateur.


14 posted on 05/19/2016 9:36:28 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: jalisco555

Well it’s true. Hillary supporters are bitter and unattractive. I take that back. They are downright ugly,ugly,ugly.


15 posted on 05/19/2016 9:37:47 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: Theophilus
Shoulda shot the six with a little bottom right, come back for the seven with a little reverse, pop the four with a little follow, then eight in the corner.

But no, he had to go for the straight in to the side with no back spin. Amateur!

16 posted on 05/19/2016 9:38:54 AM PDT by going hot (Happiness is a Momma deuce)
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To: going hot

Shoulda shot the six with a little bottom right, come back for the seven with a little reverse, pop the four with a little follow, then eight in the corner.
But no, he had to go for the straight in to the side with no back spin. Amateur!
_____________________________

If you are going to shoot straight in you better no how to spin. Amateurs simply do not. Trump is the master of spin.


17 posted on 05/19/2016 9:42:05 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Comes from years of misspent youth.


18 posted on 05/19/2016 9:46:10 AM PDT by going hot (Happiness is a Momma deuce)
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To: GilGil

“It is not about being overconfident. Often using the word overconfident is code for stay on your ass and do nothing so nothing is risked.”


I saw an interview a couple weeks ago with someone who knows Trump reasonably well. He said that Trump is the kind of guy who NEVER relents; he’s the guy who runs all out until he breaks the tape, even if he’s got a big lead in the race.

So there will be none of the “it’s my turn” or “it’s in the bag” kind of behavior from the Trump campaign. Sitting on his ass is not in Trump’s DNA, which explains very well why he has been such an incredible success in business. Now he’s applying that same work ethic to politics, against people who’ve never seen him operate before.

To paraphrase General George S. Patton, Jr.: “You know, by God, I actually pity those poor bastards we’re going up against. By God, I do. We’re not just going to outcampaign the bastards. We’re going to cut them off from their traditional voters and use them to install a bunch of new Republicans. We’re going to murder those lousy Dem bastards by the bushel.”


19 posted on 05/19/2016 9:57:31 AM PDT by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." A. E. van Vogt)
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To: GilGil; going hot
There have been a few time where I could have swore he was shooting for the pockets but miraculously, the ball didn't fall.

You're right he's no amateur but so many have said he's not a professional politician.

Und der Haifisch, der hat Zähne,
Und die trägt er im Gesicht.
Und Macheath, der hat ein Messer,
Doch das Messer sieht man nicht.

20 posted on 05/19/2016 10:05:36 AM PDT by Theophilus (Always vote. Always vote your conscience. God wins every election.)
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