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Donald Trump has a 69% chance of winning the Indiana primary
Fivethirtyeight ^ | May 1, 2016 | Nate Silver

Posted on 05/01/2016 8:33:04 AM PDT by Zenjitsuman

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To: sagar

3 delegates to the winner of each district (subtotal 27)
30 to the winner of the state (total 57)


21 posted on 05/01/2016 10:03:36 AM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: Signalman

You’ll poke your eye out, kid.


22 posted on 05/01/2016 10:04:44 AM PDT by Rebelbase
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To: scrabblehack

Just spent some time at RedState reading the comments. They are having a collective nervous breakdown.


23 posted on 05/01/2016 10:17:46 AM PDT by MaxistheBest
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To: Zenjitsuman

Those were the delegates for the second and third ballots if no clear winner in the primary...which Trump will be.

But this has to stop. I favor the Indiana model. At the end, the one with the most delegates wins it all at the convention. No second or third ballots UNLESS the leader drops out.


24 posted on 05/01/2016 10:24:26 AM PDT by crz
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To: Zenjitsuman

In the real world, pollsters know that we are terrible at forecasting turnout for Trump voters.

Trump voters occasionally turn out in much smaller numbers than expected and often in much larger numbers than expected. This is not exclusively a question of open v. closed primaries (Indiana is open). While I’m okay with saying Trump is more likely than not to win in Indiana, I am not okay with claiming we can put a meaningful number on his odds beyond that.


25 posted on 05/01/2016 10:27:59 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Somebody who agrees with me 80% of the time is a friend and ally, not a 20% traitor. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Zenjitsuman

Nate, who cited Gary Freaking Johnson as his ideal presidential candidate, cited Gary Freaking Johnson as his ideal presidential candidate.


26 posted on 05/01/2016 11:39:30 AM PDT by StAnDeliver ("Too bad your overhauled unicorn start-up failed, Ted.")
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