RUSH: Now, as for what’s happening today, keeping today in perspective, it’s gonna be a great day for Trump. You got voters in Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. So 172 delegates will be accounted for today. Trump is expected to win all five of these primaries.
He’s expected to win between 98 and 123 of the 172 delegates at stake. But all of this is expected — none of this is a surprise — and winning these delegates is not going to add or increase Trump’s chances of wrapping up the nomination. All of the projections people are making of total delegate count going into Indiana and then going into California, already include these. Now, I’m not trying to tamp down spirit today. I’m just trying to keep everything in perspective for you.
Whatever happens today has already been calculated in delegate projections. It’s already been factored, and it’s all based on polling data, and it’s probably true. Trump’s gonna sweep these five primary states. He’s gonna get these delegates, between 98 and 123. They are already accounted for. In other words, delegates that Trump wins today are not surprise delegates nobody expected to get added to the list. They’re already in everybody’s lists. So what it means is that, after today, the nomination is actually going to be determined by the 10 primaries left after today.
There are only 10 remaining after we finish these five today — and of those 10, Indiana is the focus, and Indiana is next week. And there’s drama there, because nobody knows whether Trump or Cruz is going to win Indiana. And Kasich is a wild card and is even more sporadic and wild cardish now. I mean, nobody can keep track of what he’s doing or saying. One moment he doesn’t want people to vote for him; the next moment he says he does want people to vote for him. He’s vetting vice presidential nominees.
We have this nonaggression pact that Kasich and Cruz have supposedly signed, but it’s already beginning to fray. But Scott Rasmussen says, “There is one ironic footnote to the Northeastern Primary. The very process that Trump claims is rigged will once again work to his benefit. His share of the delegates won on Tuesday will almost certainly exceed his share of the vote. Up to this point, Trump has earned 28% more delegates than his pro rata share of the vote would deem appropriate,” such, as an example, New York.
Trump got 60% of the vote and 95% of the delegates. He got many more delegates than you would think proportionate to the votes. So it works both ways. Now, of the 172 delegates that are available today, 118 of them will be formally pledged to a candidate on the first ballot, and it doesn’t matter who these delegates end up being. We don’t know who they are. These delegates, some of them may have been chosen. These states may have had their convention; some of them may have not. We don’t know who the delegates are.
It doesn’t matter who they are, doesn’t matter what the delegates think; 118 of them are formally pledged to a candidate on the first ballot. Trump should win between 98 and 106 of these. So, again, not to tamp down anybody’s spirit today, but what’s on tap today has already been factored into everybody’s projections. Trump’s expected to sweep big, and it’s relevant in the sense that it could create even more momentum. I mean, it’s not good when you have five losses in a row like Cruz and Kasich are gonna experience today. But at the same time, it doesn’t constitute anything today happening that’s unexpected. So no surprises.
This is the irony that Scott Rasmussen was talking about:
“When you add it all up, Trump is likely to win less than 50% of the vote on Tuesday, but end up with between 57% and 72% of the delegates,” and nobody’s gonna complain because that’s the rules. That’s the way it works out. Nobody’s whining about it. It’s just the way it happens. But it’s not going to tell us any more than we already know. Not a lot, because all of this is already factored in.
However, I did say — and I will say it again, talked about it yesterday — narratives, narratives have replaced news.
We don’t have news anymore; we have narratives, we have templates, we have stories. And so pro-Trump media is gonna treat this tonight like it is just the greatest thing, it’s manna from heaven, and it’s more unexpected, and it’s Trump slam dunk and it’s gonna be treated that way.
My only point, I’m trying to help you keep perspective here. That’s all. I’m not diminishing, suppressing anything. You know, I’m the mayor of Realville here, and that means I am Mr. Literal. Don’t be offended. It’s quite the exact opposite. I’m assuming that you’re up to speed on all this stuff, and understand that we got 10 left after today, and I can see where you get offended. You’re hearing me say your state doesn’t count and 10 states yet to vote do count more. Not saying that. It’s just what’s gonna happen in Pennsylvania is largely known, and the only surprise will be if what everybody think’s is gonna happen doesn’t. And we’ll find out.
We’ll talk tomorrow, see if there’s any upset applecart, but I’ll bet there probably isn’t going to be.
You forgot the part where sCruz will be mathematically eliminated from the first ballot tonight and, if he stays in, shows he is less interested in America and more interested in sliming his way into the general election, which he’ll lose in a heartbeat to Hitlery.
Rush has gone into total dick-mode.
“He’s expected to win between 98 and 123 of the 172 delegates at stake. But all of this is expected — none of this is a surprise — and winning these delegates is not going to add or increase Trump’s chances of wrapping up the nomination. All of the projections people are making of total delegate count going into Indiana and then going into California, already include these. Now, I’m not trying to tamp down spirit today. I’m just trying to keep everything in perspective for you.”
Well Rush, in these states everyone gets to participate unlike Colorado for example.
Come on Rush and anybody else pushing this lie.
Nobody is upset when the winner wins more delegates. Almost every election and vote is eventually winner take all. Mitt Romney is not President of the few states he won.
Most people ARE upset when the loser wins more delegates. There aren’t any Loser Take All states. Well, except for Colorado.
Rush can kiss my ass...
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