How Politics Influences the Stock Market: Not Very Much

New York Times ^ | APRIL 25, 2016 | Peter Eavis

[expat_panama]

...someone is going to call this the Hillary rally.

As the chances of Mrs. Clinton’s nomination have strengthened, the Dow Jones industrial average has soared, rising 2,344 points, or 15 percent, from its recent low on Feb. 11.

Other factors could have helped drive stocks higher...

It wouldn’t be wise to also call it a Trump rally...

...Time and time again, political partisans have tried to recruit the stock market to their side. Most of the time it backfires...

...March 2009, days after The Wall Street Journal opinion section published an article headlined “Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Dow,” the stock market embarked on a bull market that has kept going to this day. (I do need to note that in 2012, a brief “Romney rally” occurred.)

But left-leaning pundits are not immune to using big moves in the markets to bolster their arguments for certain policies...

...“Think of markets as a mediocre but not hopeless weatherman making probabilistic forecasts.” (His comments came after publication because I overlooked his initial response to my query.)

The news media can also be guilty...

...The market does contain important signals that can tell a bigger story, but it’s a job to separate them from the noise and pure speculation. Sometimes markets react to specific political events. If Mr. Trump...

...you could reach the same economic conclusions without ever looking at the stock market. Most of what the markets appear to be saying can already be guessed at by looking at other sources.

Markets also misread what’s going on in the wider world. They don’t have a special clairvoyance...

[expat_panama]

There've been a lot of freepers saying the stock market's rigged and that every single person who buys and sells stocks is first checking w/ Market Rigging Command for their daily trading instructions.  Somehow that seems a bit far-fetched to me but what do I know?

Anyway, we've also been hearing that the Wall Street's been supported since 1913 by the Federal Reserve, before that it was "the Bush Bubble", before that it was what, oil?  Japan?  the Military-Industrial-Complex?  Y'all can say what you want, but today (as usual) I intend to buy/sell in whatever manner that I choose.

That's right, I'm the one who controls the markets [cackle snort]...

Related thread: Here's What's Keeping the Stock Market Up [BUYBACKS]

[ClearCase_guy]

The federal government spends $4T a year and actively picks winners and losers in the US economy.

Thanks for playing.

[expat_panama]

--and a very merry Tuesday morning to everyone!  Yesterday stock indexes drifted back down a tad in weaker trading volume while gold'n'silver drifted back up a bit.  Right now futures are mixed on both.   IBD's take: Stocks Pare Early Losses, Oil Falls As Focus Turns To Yellen.

Then again, it might be everyone holding their breath for--

8:30 AM Durable Orders
8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation
9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence

Either that or it's---

The Idea of the Wealth Effect Is Likely Wrong - Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg
Beware State Capitalism, The Enemy of Real Markets - Allister Heath, DT
We Need Real Approach To International Tax Reform - Ike Brannon, TWS
How the Fed Played Favorites During the Crisis - Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Uber's $100M Settlement Settles Very Little - Alan Hyde, The New Republic
Is Gentrification Overrated in the Inequality Puzzle? - Jesse Singal, NYM
Google Alert: Government Is After You - Stephen Moore, Washington Times
Energy Industry Gets Sierra Clubbed - Editorial, Investor's Business Daily
The Middle Class Is Doing Fine: Ignore All the Gloom - Scott Winship, NR

[expat_panama]

...government spends $4T a year and actively picks winners...

--and you've known about this all along, GREAT!   So.  How've you been doing with your own buying/selling based on this inside scoop?

[bert]

I killed a sheep last thursday and on examination the entrails clearly indicated that the end of the Obama trauma is responsible for the mild increase in the market

[trebb]

Good for you.....

[Buckeye McFrog]

Oh, that is going to change. We are entering an age of rampant populism.

If Trump wins, the Cheap Labor Express will grind to a halt. If Bernie stages a Lazarus-style comeback, a lot more than THAT will happen to Wall Street.

[expat_panama]

...the mild increase in the market...

imho that's actually a more acurate way of describing what we got:

 

When I look at it I see us barely above the decade and a half of a choppy no-where base --like we had back w/ Nixon/Carter.

 

I'm very much looking forward to a Trump/Cruz era being more like the Reagan/Bush epoch.

[DoughtyOne]