Posted on 04/25/2016 3:55:20 AM PDT by expat_panama
Despite a flat day for stocks on Friday, the S&P 500 and the Dow are enjoying a stunning bull run that has them approaching records set back in May.
However, this climb toward fresh heights may be ephemeral, according to technician Tom McClellan. In a series of notes, he said the stock market is nearly out of room to run higher because such a large swath of investors have already “turned bullish” over the past several weeks.
“If ‘everyone’ is already bullish, then there is no one left to turn bullish, and to add incremental buying pressure to lift prices...
...sentiment as measured by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, which puts out a weekly survey gauging investor exposure to stocks, is at its highest level since April 2015, as the following chart shows:
...not everyone is expecting rough seas ahead. Jeffrey Saut, chief investment officer at Raymond James, is describing the recent action as a “buying stampede,” and is convinced the market is on track to break new records.
Saut defines a so-called buying stampede as 17 to 25 days of up days, only interrupted by no more than three down days. He said the market was in its 49th day of this buying phase and cautioned “not to doubt a buying stampede.” “I haven’t wavered in my view of the market…We came in cautious but I think this [stock market] trades higher,” he said.
So, sell in May and go away? Or dig in with both hands? It is anyone’s guess, but there are reasons to move gingerly with the Federal Reserve set to update its interest-rate policy on April 27 at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
In the early days of the stock market, powerful men would conspire to raise the price of stock. When all the gullible investors jumped in, they would quietly sell. At some point the artificially high price for the stocks would collapse and the gullible would lose.
Today there are laws in place that is suppose to stop this sort of thing, but as we all know now, laws are only for the “little people”. (Or, if you believe in conspiracies, the people in control over look these transgressions to keep the top money men in line.)
If you are rich enough, powerful enough, and are connected, you can pretty much do as you please.
I am not saying a person can not make money in the stock market, but only if you know what you are doing. If not, you may as well go to Las Vegas, there at least you can get free drinks and a floor show as you toss your money away.
(I know, some of you have done well in the stock market, good for you, but you also have to admit there are thousands that have lost their retirement funds in the stock market as well).
I believe the “rally” will continue until after the election, so as to preserve Obama’s economic legacy and support the DemocRAT Party in general.
Afterward, all bets are off.
Happy New Week! Last Friday the NASDAQ posted another distribution day darkening the clouds on our market outlook. Still, stock index futures aren't too gloomy as they point up to a +0.29% this AM, metals are seen -0.95% --a bit of profit taking maybe as gold/silver settle at $1,232.15/$16.93.
New Home Sales is the only major econ report today but the week ahead looks formidable; click Expect Lively Talk Ahead of Bland FOMC Statement - Richard Moody, RB for predictions.
More neat stuff:
What Is the Actual "Gender Pay" Gap? - Robert Samuelson, Washington Post
Modern Caste System More & More About Money - Nelson Schwartz, NYT
Echoes of 1999: Tech Mania and Asian Flu - Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates
Markets Are Efficient, But It Takes Some Time - Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg
It's Dangerous In the Bond Market - Worrachate & Debnath, Bloomberg
Investment Banks Have Woken Up to the Crunch - Tim Wallace, Telegraph
Thoughts On Why U.S. Is Still Tight With Saudi - Christopher Dickey, TDB
Lifting the Oil Export Ban Is Working - Stephen Moore, Investor's Business
Demonizing ExxonMobil to 'Prove' a Theory - George Will, National Review
Uber's Big $84M Settlement May Harm the Drivers - Michael Hiltzik, LAT
--and while those thousands have pooped out there've been millions doing just fine. Yeah, we don't hear this often enough on the FR, but Americans are not idiots and those that refuse to face that fact have historically done very poorly.
--and I'd guess that you may believe it enough to post it here but that you know better than to let it direct how you place your savings investments.
Actually, I went all-in back in 2008 on the theory that DemocRAT allies on Wall Street would not allow the first “Black” president to fail economically—I have profited handsomely as a result.
If anything, Obama’s supporters/defenders are even more strident now than they were starting out, given that the first “Black” president has been an absolute bust. As such, I expect the market averages to push higher.
I did make the mistake of listening to an “advisor” a couple of years back—another technician—who was predicting doom and gloom; which resulted in my missing out on yet another move higher. Never again.
So yeah, my money is where my mouth is.
I concede some make money in the stock market.
Some lose money in the stock market.
It is still a rigged game.
Happy that you are doing well.
You did great, congrats!!
Your strategy isn't very easy to follow (there was no '“Black” president' in '08) but what I gather is that you bot before the '08 peak, sold, and bot back in w/ the '09 dip, you're in solid now, -- and your reasoning is that stock prices are controlled by Democrats.
You and I are doing the same things but our reasons are different, though we both agree it's a bad idea to make 'the mistake of listening to an “advisor”'.
tx! Interesting that only folks on the right say that while leftists tend to hate it when others do well.
It is still a rigged game.
We hear that a lot on the FR, although I've never NEVER heard from anyone who says they're buying/selling stocks as directed by some kind of Rigging Central Command.
Have you?
neat!! if I’d have realized it was just a ‘.gif’ I’d have posted it.
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