Reasons One through Five: MD, OR, CT, NJ and NH
Reasons six and seven: PA, VA
But, that would make it: 300 to 238 and that would be OK by me.
I agree with most of your one through five, Trump will take NH, but lose IA.
He will carry PA and VA.
I saw one poll with Trump over Cankles in PA, and last VA poll I saw it was a 2 point race.