I honestly believe at this point that Trump will probably take more than 57% of the remaining delegates and go over 1,237 before the convention.
Posted on 04/20/2016 2:11:15 PM PDT by NRx
Donald Trump's campaign advisers believe the billionaire mogul is emerging as the "prohibitive favorite" in the Republican presidential race and project that he will accumulate more than 1,400 delegates to secure the nomination on the first round of balloting at the party's Cleveland convention, according to an internal campaign memorandum.
The projections come in a memo distributed to Trump surrogates late Tuesday night containing talking points for use in media interviews this week. The memo, obtained by The Washington Post, describes Trump's commanding win in the New York primary as "YUGE" and encourages his supporters to speak out about what Trump has described as a "rigged" process of selecting delegates for the Republican National Convention in July.
The memo refers to the campaign's staff shakeup, with campaign manager Corey Lewandowski's power diminished and newly-hired adviser Paul Manafort assuming broad control over the campaign's strategy and its enhanced budget. It reads, "Building out our campaign staff to make sure we leave no stone unturned and that we can win this thing on the up and up — not through a rigged set of rules."
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
TAKING THE COUNTRY BACK..!
Been keepin’ a list,
Checkin’ it twice,
Gonna find out who’s been naughty or nice....
(MOST OF THEM NAUGHTY)
I honestly believe at this point that Trump will probably take more than 57% of the remaining delegates and go over 1,237 before the convention.
“I honestly believe at this point that Trump will probably take more than 57% of the remaining delegates and go over 1,237 before the convention.”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
You have to look at it state by state, and not just a blanket percentage. There are also 129 uncommitted delegates to consider.
Good site to play with the numbers:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/
Why is Ohio green?...............or is it chartreuse?.........
Many thanks for the graphic!
Then the campaign is deluding itself.
In all likelihood, Trump will wind up with 32 wins. The 22 he has here, PA, WV, MD, NJ, DE, CT, RI, CA and then 2 of 3 between IN, OR and WA.
For Trump to NOT win before the convention, there would have to be a serious collapse for him in IN, CA, and the uncommitted. I don’t see that happening.
Actually, probably more than that.
Once the nose counters see it’s safe at 1300+, everyone will want to be on the Trump Train, and delegates, who are supposedly bound to Cruz or Kasich on the first ballot will hop aboard with Trump.
BTW, Party rules and even laws notwithstanding, no one is ever really penalized for not voting for their pledged candidate, even on the first ballot.
Even if state party rules penalize them, the winning candidate then gets the state party chair on the phone and goes through the ritual of the “We need everybody working to make sure we win....” phone call... and “all sins are forgiven.”
The clock is ticking. The bell tolls for Ted.
Ping.
This is actually quite reasonable. Trump is unlikely to make it by just a few delegates. If he’s going over the threshold, the party leadership will not be able to pretend that it is unanimous consent, but they will not want it to look like he just barely made it either. More than that, those who want to rise or want positions in the Trump administration will want to deliver delegates to avoid the appearance that Trump just barely got the nomination.
Trump is more likely to miss by a lot (100 or more) or make it by a lot (again, 100 or more) than he is to have a very close margin on the first ballot. Note: this assumes the establishment-outsider dynamic will not remain too severe once the insiders see that they have lost.
Yep. It’s called momentum and everyone likes a winner.
Trump needs to get “smoother,” but that will come.
Quickly, I hope.
Is this sweet or what? Go Trump!
;-)
You betcha!!
There’s definitely a campaign who is deluding itself...and it’s NOT Trump’s.
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