Posted on 04/20/2016 1:48:09 PM PDT by Lorianne
Those expecting a strong Spring start to housing (and you know who you are), were miles off their forecast.
Both starts and permits were down steep percentages, both below the bottom ranges of economists’ estimates.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate for housing starts was 1.167 million homes SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualized) in a range of 1.120 million to 1.195 million.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate for housing permits was 1.200 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualized) in a range of 1.175 million to 1.231 million.
Permits came in at 1.086 million.
Starts came in at 1.089 million.
Fundamental Strength
Inquiring minds may be interested in exploring Bloomberg’s comment “Nevertheless, there is fundamental strength in the year-on-year rates, at plus 14.2 percent for starts and a less spectacular plus 4.6 percent for permits.”
I happen to have a series of pictures that adequately displays the “fundamental strength” that Bloomberg cites.
-chart-
The fundamental strength of March 2016 vs. March 2015 is based on a lowball number last year that was then downplayed as “the weather”.
Today, beating the previous year’s bad weather represents fundamental strength.
Based off that rationale, let’s look ahead to see what is fundamentally on the horizon.
(Excerpt) Read more at mishtalk.com ...
HuD policies are destroying neighborhoods and driving house prices down. A friend of mine saw his investment decrease in value by $4000 a year while he still was making VA loan payments. He sold the house on the same loan but the next owner lost even more money and foreclosed. He now owes the VA $20000 if he wants to get a new house. Well, guess what, no new house.
The Obamaphones and Obamabouses are doing their damage PERMANENTLY... until the next bail out....
Dead cats are very strong too, I’ve heard.
My friend who writes the loans for a local bank said in October all the rules changed and they had to be retrained. She is about 50 and said it was like learning it all for the first time. So, I bet rules are tougher and probably there are reams more paperwork to do. Thanks Obama and Republican Congress for allowing it to happen.
on a positive note, cardboard and used school bus sales are soaring
3 Years ago While trying to get a Building Permit to build a new house on our property, I was so fed up that after 1 year, I ended up buying another house on the same street. I had the Money in the Bank to PAY CASH for the House, but I would have been Flat Broke. So I got a Mortgage, BARELY. Wells Fargo pissed me off so much during the process, I put 1/3 down, 6 figure income, NO DEBT, Owned 2 houses outright already,Had the Money in the Bank to not need the Mortgage, They Still put me through the ringer, so much that I swore never to do business with them again, I Paid the House OFF in 10 Months, making sure they LOST Money on the deal.
I don’t know how anyone buys a house anymore
I still DO NOT HAVE A PERMIT, however the Plans were submitted again 2 weeks ago for the 50th time.
Los Angeles County
UNEXPECTED!
And on that news, the Dow is up 186,500 points.
I’m having a hard time figuring the stock market outright now there is no reason for it to rise as much as it has nothing has changed since it fell in January
Harm neither the oil nor the wine is my only guess.
Disclaimer: JMHO.
Anything that gives the Fed an excuse to invent more bogus money for QE is good. Anything that looks like the economy is healing enough to put interest rates at sane levels is bad. If you're a zillionaire, you know the manipulations of the market so you always make money.
Got it?
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