Posted on 04/07/2016 10:02:43 PM PDT by Nachum
When we last looked at order of heavy, or Class 8, truck one quarter ago - that all-important, forward looking barometer of domestic trade - we said that even with 2015 in the history books, and as we start 2016 where the base effect was supposed to make the annual comps far more palatable, the latest, January data, as abysmal: "the drop continues to be one of Great Recession proportions, manifesting in yet another massive 48% collapse in truck orders in the first month of the year as demand appears to have gone in a state of deep hibernation."
Fast forward one quarter when we now have another three months of Class 8 truck data, and unfortunately the orderbook has gone from bad to worse. As the WSJ reports, orders for new big rigs plunged and inventories of unsold trucks soared to their highest levels since just before the financial crisis, as uncertainty about future demand and a weak market for freight transportation weighed on truck manufacturers.
About 67,000 Class 8 trucks are sitting unsold on dealer lots, after sales in March dropped 37% from a year earlier to 16,000 vehicles, according to ACT Research. Class 8 trucks are the type most commonly used on long-haul routes. Inventories haven’t been this high since early 2007, said Kenny Vieth, president of ACT.
The number of March orders was the lowest since 2012.
The problem according to the WSJ? Simply not enough freight, or as some may call it, trade: "It boils down to, at present, there are too many trucks chasing too little freight,” Mr. Vieth said.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
Temporary saturation of the market, maybe. Or more driverless trucks quietly taking over the roads.
Obama says everything is fine, economy is humming along. Unemployment officially anyway, is below 5%, which officially is great news.. etc. etc. etc.
That is a lot of unsold trucks.
What, our economy isn’t roaring?
Who knew?
There are 40 million folks out there that know.
Next year Trump will be getting them back to work.
u n e x p e c t e d
When all those other trucks aren't running, the demand goes down.
Dioesn’t bammy let mexican trucks go farther than 15 miles inside the US now?
Doesn’t
All those casing strings that aren't traveling north (and tons, literally, of other supplies and materials) to the oil field don't put miles on rolling stock. Up here, 80% of the jobs dried up when the drilling rigs that created them went idle.
There is a railroad siding along I10 east of Tucson that must have a couple of hundred locomotive engines parked head to tail. They used to be hauling freight, but now they just sit there.
I often wonder how they can constantly move so many new units every year or expect to. I only drive beaters that cost 500 dollars so I can’t relate to going in the hole for a vehicle, life is too expensive as it is.
I saw them in March. The length was 2 to 4? miles. 80? feet long locomotives-— hundreds... idle.
Almost 95 million not in the workforce.
I passed a railyard several weeks ago and saw something like 12 - 18 locomotives head-to-tail.
I’m used to seeing 2-5 in transit. Maybe it was more.
I was close (100-150 feet or so it seemed) but I didn’t start counting because I didn’t expect there to be so many.
And this was just one side track. I wasn’t seeing 90% of the yard.
AU and ammo...yes, gold. I still foolishly believe they can’t artificially repress gold forever.
Wouldn't you still need the trucks??????????
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