I'm thinking there is room for movement either way here.
I'm pulling for Cruz but I see some hope for the Trump folks as well. I recommend watching the trends in the California polling on RCP. That will tell us a lot.
LET’S FIX IT!
[Interestingly, Field finds a strong correlation between Trump voters and those who voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger:
Likely Republican voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger now support Trump over Cruz by a nearly three to one margin, according to the poll. Republicans who voted for Tom McClintock or some other candidate are far more likely to support Cruz. Schwarzenegger himself has endorsed Kasich this year.]
Not surprising.
Cruz is coming on strong with 2 months to go!
Meaningless as Ted will have no path to the nomination after April 19th. Trump is putting the hammer down in NY with a full out statewide organization to end it in a week and a half. From that point on, Ted can only be a broker for a contested convention, which Trump will hammer home. Ted’s tepid support will crater after he loses the next 6.
Is CA winner take all, or would Trump need >50% to get all the delegates?
Let’s see how the polls go when Cruz gets mathematically eliminated in a couple of weeks.
I have seen ZERO polls of cruz winning a state that Romney lost.
Wall Street is now gelling around Hillary (per breitbart)
Trump is “undiplomatically frank” with his statements and creates unforced errors.
Cruz blew the south by running as “televangelist in chief” and his errors are the product of hubris.
hubris is not leadership.
I do not like any Republican candidate but will vote for them in the general election. Be that as it may if enough Republican and Independent California voters went for “Crazy Bernie” would that stop the election of Hillary.
I'm thinking there is room for movement either way here.
I'm pulling for Cruz but I see some hope for the Trump folks as well. I recommend watching the trends in the California polling on RCP. That will tell us a lot.
The Delegates needs 482 of remaining 835 or 57.7%. With the states that remain, he can not earn the needed delegates with plurality victories. That is why he is wants Kasich get out.
Cannot imagine LA and the surrounding area as hot spots for conservatism
The bigger concern is another “demokrat operation kaos” where the rats cross over to vote for Cruz to face Hillary or Bernie - as occurred in Wisconsin
“Interestingly, Field finds a strong correlation between Trump voters and those who voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger:
‘Likely Republican voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger now support Trump over Cruz by a nearly three to one margin, according to the poll. Republicans who voted for Tom McClintock or some other candidate are far more likely to support Cruz.’”
What a surprise. I’m going to die of a heart attack from that surprise.
The main differences between Arnold and Trump are that Arnold didn’t need daddy’s money and loan guarantees to become rich, and Arnold is an immigrant that married an American while Trump is an American that married two immigrants (with an American mistress-turned-wife in between).
I remember how infuriating it was back during the CA recall election when so many FReepers drank the Kool-Aid and supported the liberal RINO Arnold over solid conservative Tom McClintock. I guess that Karl Marx was right about one thing: “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.” Arnold could keep all of his liberal positions and if he promised to build a wall for free he’d become “conservative” in the eyes of many FReepers. Sad, really.
Anything can happen at a political convention. A little historical factoid: In 1880. James Garfield, who started out the Republican convention as a person chosen to give a nominating speech for the incumbent president Rutherford B. Hayes, ended up as the Republican Party’s nominee after 36 ballots. Garfield had no interest in even running for president before the convention became completely deadlocked.
Garfield only had 1 vote heading into the 34th ballot. Former president U.S. Grant had the largest number of delegates on every ballot until the 36th when Garfield finally won a majority. As part of a bargain, Chester Arthur from NY was selected as the VP nominee. Arthur had never held political office but was one of the leaders of the NY political machine who were behind Grant. Garfield got Arthur to break from his boss, Sen. Roscoe Conkling, and accept the the VP nomination. Less than a year later, Arthur became president after the assassination of Garfield.
Excellent. Striking distance.
So essentially, Cruz is going to win by 15%?
Ping!
bkmk
Los Angeles County is the garbage County of California along with San Francisco and area.
