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Climate forecasts may be flawed, says study
Yahoo! News ^ | 04/06/2016 | AFP

Posted on 04/06/2016 2:03:58 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

Predictions of unprecedented rainfall extremes in the 20th century driven by global warming turned out wrong, a study said Wednesday, casting doubt on methods used to project future trends.

A massive trawl of Northern Hemisphere rainfall data for the last 1,200 years revealed there had been more dramatic wet-dry weather extremes in earlier, cooler centuries before humans set off fossil fuel-driven global warming.

This is problematic, said a study in the journal Nature, as the same data models used to anticipate that global warming would cause record rainfall extremes in the 1900s, are the basis for projections of things to come.

"It might be more difficult than often assumed to project into the future," the study's lead author Fredrik Ljungqvist of Stockholm University told AFP of the findings.

"The truth can be much, much more complicated."

The UN's climate science panel, the consensus authority, contends that dry areas will become ever drier and wet ones wetter as the global temperature rises in response to greenhouse gas emissions.

But the new work said sky-high temperatures in the 20th century did not directly translate into record extremes between wet and dry weather, as many had expected.

This meant that "much of the change is not only driven by temperature, but some internal, more random variability," explained Ljungqvist.

"It's therefore very, very hard also to predict (precipitation extremes) with models."

Over the study period, drought was most severe during the 12th century, which was a warm one, and the 15th which was cold, said the scientist.

(Excerpt) Read more at in.news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climategate; hoax; marxism; socialism
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Repeat after me, children; Computer models are not science.
1 posted on 04/06/2016 2:03:58 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

2 posted on 04/06/2016 2:05:33 PM PDT by Red Badger (The Left doesn't like him and the Right doesn't like him, so he must be the right guy for the job...)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Details,, schmetails!!!

Globull Varming Sells!

Jaaaa!!!


3 posted on 04/06/2016 2:12:04 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (SEMPER FI!! - Monthly Donors Rock!!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

FLAWED???? The hell you say. Computers are PERFECT, if they say it then it must be so.


4 posted on 04/06/2016 2:13:31 PM PDT by Cyman
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
before humans set off fossil fuel-driven global warming.

So... Global warming predictions are wrong BUT humans are still causing it and it's bad.
5 posted on 04/06/2016 2:13:45 PM PDT by Organic Panic
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
This is problematic, said a study in the journal Nature...

Am I the only one whose gut tells him/her that the West's "watermelons" (green on the outside,red on the inside) will find a way to explain away this "problem"?

6 posted on 04/06/2016 2:14:59 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Obamanomics:Trickle Up Poverty)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Heretics! Global Climate Change Deniers!

You should be burned at the stake, only that would cause more Global Climate Change. Curses, foiled again.


7 posted on 04/06/2016 2:15:25 PM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
""Do their results invalidate current predictive models? Certainly not. But they do highlight a big challenge for climate modellers, and present major research opportunities both for modellers and climate scientists..."

Need more money!

8 posted on 04/06/2016 2:19:34 PM PDT by Mannaggia l'America
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Ljungqvist is my middle name! I can’t pronounce it, but it’s still my middle name!


9 posted on 04/06/2016 2:20:15 PM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra (Don't touch that thing Don't let anybody touch that thing!I'm a Doctor and I won't touch that thing!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Amen to that. When you run a model with arbitrarily set variables you get garbage out, or what you want out.

Whenever these "scientists" get real world data that doesn't match their model they find a cause like we are in climate remission or the ocean is unexpectedly acting as a heat sink.

Never do they say "We made a bad assumption with our formula or it's variables".

10 posted on 04/06/2016 2:22:10 PM PDT by pfflier
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
A massive trawl of Northern Hemisphere rainfall data for the last 1,200 years revealed there had been more dramatic wet-dry weather extremes in earlier, cooler centuries before humans set off fossil fuel-driven global warming.

I got this far before I stopped reading, due to the absurd "before humans set off fossil fuel-driven global warming."

Hard to accept a presumably fact driven article which immediately degenerates into 'taking as a given' the 'fossil fuel driven' fraudulent current dependence on totally wrong (useless?) climate computer models.

Seems like a stupid thing to reorder the economy of all advanced countries based on incompetence or, more likely, fraud.

People seriously need to study the extremes of climate (not weather!) between the 9th and 15th centuries. The current brouhaha pales into total ignorance or willful malevolence.

11 posted on 04/06/2016 2:24:44 PM PDT by publius911 (IMPEACH HIM NOW evil, stupid, insane ignorant or just clueless, doesn't matter!)
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To: Bubba_Leroy

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/1RhI53/:16eH_cGH0:6usmOr@k/www.math.psu.edu/tseng/H2Ojoke.html

H2O: Dangerous Chemical!
A student at Eagle Rock Junior High won first prize at the Greater Idaho Falls Science Fair, April 26. He was attempting to show how conditioned we have become to alarmists practicing junk science and spreading fear of everything in our environment. In his project he urged people to sign a petition demanding strict control or total elimination of the chemical “dihydrogen monoxide.”

And for plenty of good reasons, since:

1. it can cause excessive sweating and vomiting
2. it is a major component in acid rain
3. it can cause severe burns in its gaseous state
4. accidental inhalation can kill you
5. it contributes to erosion
6. it decreases effectiveness of automobile brakes
7. it has been found in tumors of terminal cancer patients

He asked 50 people if they supported a ban of the chemical.
•Forty-three (43) said yes,
•six (6) were undecided,
•and only one (1) knew that the chemical was water.

The title of his prize winning project was, “How Gullible Are We?”

He feels the conclusion is obvious.


12 posted on 04/06/2016 2:25:09 PM PDT by Eddie01
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

13 posted on 04/06/2016 2:26:02 PM PDT by wastedyears (Iron Maiden March 30th @ Madison Square Garden.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I’ll bet that global warming somehow affected the computers that were running the computer models. Maybe they over heated. Maybe rising oceans displaced the programmers and caused them to err in creating faulty models. Somehow it’s George Bush’s fault. Of this, I am certain.


14 posted on 04/06/2016 2:26:26 PM PDT by nitzy (I don't vote for Republican'ts)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
The cooler centuries before this one...


15 posted on 04/06/2016 2:27:26 PM PDT by TigersEye (This is the age of the death of reason and rule of law. Prepare!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
...centuries before humans set off fossil fuel-driven global warming.

Accepting the lie, and trying to explain it away.

16 posted on 04/06/2016 2:27:53 PM PDT by JimRed (Is it 1776 yet? TERM LIMITS, now and forever! Build the Wall, NOW!)
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To: Gay State Conservative
Am I the only one whose gut tells him/her that the West's "watermelons" (green on the outside,red on the inside) will find a way to explain away this "problem"?

They already have.

The "new Science:" Global Warming is the cause of every negative thing."
The Science is now closed.

17 posted on 04/06/2016 2:28:01 PM PDT by publius911 (IMPEACH HIM NOW evil, stupid, insane ignorant or just clueless, doesn't matter!)
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To: Cyman

“They considered geologically preserved evidence of stream flow, lake levels, marine and lake sediments, tree rings and historical records.”
They also read tea leaves, interpreted strewn chicken bones, with the aid of a voodoo priestess, and rolled a pair of dice over a thousand times to substantiate their consensus.


18 posted on 04/06/2016 2:32:49 PM PDT by Ed Condon (subliminal messages here in invisible ink)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum; All
Thank you for referencing that article E. Pluribus Unum. Please bear in mind that the following critique is directed at the article and not at you.

Patriots, as a side note to this thread, please bear the following in mind concerning PC global warming.

Even if global warming had been proven by the consistent results of repeatable, scientific method-based experiments, it remains that the states have never delegated to the feds, expressly via the Constitution, the specific power to regulate, tax and spend for INTRAstate environmental protection issues.

“Congress is not empowered to tax for those purposes which are within the exclusive province of the States.” —Justice John Marshall, Gibbons v. Ogden, 1824.

19 posted on 04/06/2016 2:33:30 PM PDT by Amendment10
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I notice that the author of this article does not give his name. He should be THROWN IN JAIL for expressing doubt about the scientific truth of Global Warming. And this article should be given an X rating to prevent children from reading it!

Climate deniers are criminals! They must be punished!

< /s >


20 posted on 04/06/2016 2:33:50 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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