Posted on 03/30/2016 6:09:53 PM PDT by GilGil
Two recent polls from Wisconsin highlight the bizarre world of information contrast. ◾One poll of 6,000 from Optimus Research; ◾And another poll of 471 from Marquette University Law School.
Take all of this poll data with a grain of salt. Instead look at the visible activity you can rely upon. The crowds, or the raw data which has not reached a filter.
Last Night – Between 8 and 9 p.m., when Cruz answered questions from Anderson Cooper and GOP voters in Wisconsin, CNN averaged 2.78 million viewers, 853,000 of whom were in the demo. Between 9 and 10 p.m., when it was Trump’s turn, CNN averaged 4.04 million viewers, with 1.33 million in the demo.
That’s 45.32% more people who tuned in to watch Donald Trump than watched Ted Cruz on the same show.
Kasich was on last, between 10 and 11 p.m. During that hour, CNN averaged 2.97 million viewers, with 999,000 in the demo.
CNN’s closest competitor during the evening, Fox News, also saw a boost when Trump appeared on Sean Hannity’s 10 p.m. show. Hannity’s program with Trump averaged 466,000 in the demo, almost half as many as watched Kasich on CNN. (link)
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
Ratings are far more accurate than polls. They are hard numbers.
I really hope trump gets crushed
Last night he again reiterated his anti conservative viewpoint
He is clueless about what it means to be pro life.
I think most Trump supporters would agree he has had a bad week, whether polls (excluding Sruvey Monkey/ Morning Consult), the Lewandowski thing, the Heidi Cruz backlash, and the non-stop attacks from the Ryan-Walker cabal.
And in this terrible, very bad week Trump was the only candidate to gain delegates, 12 of ‘em from MO, even though there is no primary going on.
The Republican Party as a whole has had a bad week.
Mostly agree with what you said about a rough week...but, there are actually a number of polls which came out that look good for Trump...go to realpolitics.com and take a look.
I did not know about Missouri...that is good news...will offset a loss in Wisconsin(which will split their delegates)
It’s going to get much worse.
They are going all-out to steal this if Trump wins. If Trump comes up one vote short, they DEFINITELY will steal it and Judas Cruz, whatever they promised him will be left out in the cold. And if they do steal a legitimate nomination, you will see about 10 million Republicans leave the party forever.
With such a large sample size I think it is probably more accurate than you think. The Marquette poll MOE is enough to be close to the Optimus poll, if the error is in Trump’s favor. And, neither poll measured the democrats or Independents who may vote...most likely for Trump. We shall see what happens Tuesday and I will either pat myself on the back or kick myself in the ass for what I just wrote...
CNN’s Anderson Cooper has been fair to Trump.
I noticed with the East coast primaries coming up, the new talking point is only Kasich can beat Trump. Trump and Cruz are duking it out over wifegate. Which, by the way has GOPe written all over it. Kasich appears like the adult in the room. Even though he has no chance of winning the nomination, he takes 21% in the Marquette poll. That should worry us all!!
The latest 0ptimus: 3/22 - 3/24 6182LV MoE 1.1 Trump 31 Kasich 29 Cruz 27
Right now the polls basically say it’s anybody’s guess.
At least Wisconsin is now a Voter ID state.
Right now the polls basically say it’s anybody’s guess.
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That is my conclusion too.
> If Trump comes up one vote short, they DEFINITELY will steal it...
If Trump ends up one vote short — meaning that more delegates reject Trump than support him (and if a majority can agree on another candidate) — then giving the nomination to Trump would itself be “stealing” the election. (Of course, if he comes that close, chances are a few more would go over to him, so this would be a moot point.)
If Trump wins a majority (or enough delegates go over to him to make a majority), then fine. He won. If not, threats are not going to intimidate the majority who reject him. Trump supporters aren’t the only ones who can threaten. What do you think will happen to Trump’s chances in the general election if a majority of Republicans — or a very substantial number — don’t vote for him?
It’s in the interest of both pro- and anti-Trump Republicans to try to agree on a candidate who can win majority support — either Trump or Cruz (I think anyone else would evoke too much opposition). Then those who lose need to support the winner, however distasteful that may be. If not, Hillary wins (and probably takes the legislature too), stuffs the Supreme Court with anti-American wackos, and the country is screwed for the next generation.
[My own prediction is that appeals such as mine will do no good, and the country will indeed be screwed.]
Thanks for pointing this out, the difference in sample size between these two polls is huge! Gave me some confidence that Trump might be able to pull the win in Wisconsin. If not, all Cruz will talk about is how he’s turning the tide...until he loses New York thay is.
Well said Wpin. There is a world of difference between this primary race and a sports game, because voters choose the winner, and that winner must have broad support from the country to have a chance. If you just look at a map of the state’s Trump has won vs those Cruz has won, you see that his support is largly localized to the mid west.
Well, it’s either Trump or Hillary.....
~~Go Trump, GO!!~~~~Go Trump, GO!!~~~~Go Trump, GO!!~~
Does anyone here know how many people went to the Trump rallies in Wisconsin today?
You are headed for a major disappointment.
LOL. A major disappointment is going 0 for 6 on Super Tuesday while getting crushed in battleground OH/FL.
Despite the manufactured hysteria of anti-Trumpets Wisconsin is hardly a make or break state for Trump. He rolls on to the nom regardless of what happens there. There is no electorally viable alternative to Trump and everybody but deluded Cruzies can see it.
If Trump loses Wisconsin he should get out of the race so that the party can unify behind Cruz.
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