Posted on 03/20/2016 1:47:32 PM PDT by reaganaut1
Exactly right. Everyone is worried about the what-ifs. Well Trump controls his destiny right now. Hit 1237 and he’s in.
Miss 1237 then he uses his magical deal making abilities and wins anyway. I mean what better way to win actually...he’s been bragging about his ability to make deals so let him make that great deal to be the nominee. That would actually garner him even more support to come out of a contested convention as the winner. It would be amazing.
Those charts are comparing apples and oranges though. I don’t like McCain nor Romney, but this is a very tight election. Those two had it locked down pretty early so no one voted after they “won”.
Yep, and shut his mouth a little more often.
Depends on how “clear” that front runner is at the convention. But never fear, if Trump comes up short on delegates he’ll use his magical deal making abilities to get the nomination. And what better way for him to win—that would actually unite the party behind him too. It’s probably best for Trump to get a contested convention. He gets to display his amazing deal making abilities and unite the party behind him!
You have it all wrong. This is part of his master plan to win the nomination. He’s going to make it look impossible and then his magical deal making abilities will be on full display. We will all be wowed that he was able to get all those people he pissed on for months to back him at a contested convention. Then we’ll get a taste of how he’s going to get Mexico to pay for the wall and China to change their trade practices. He’s an amazing man and this is his time to showcase his talents. I’m just surprised he hasn’t bragged about this yet.
It's pretty clear so far. Trump has over half again as many delegates as Cruz, and nobody else comes close. And the number of votes he has gotten is even more lopsided because most of Cruz' wins have been caucuses.
LOL. That was truly inspired. I stand corrected.
I think that is wise advice to everyone, including me.
Do you have a source for Wyoming? Real Clear politics shows Cruz with 9 out of 29 delegates... not a majority. He did win the popular vote. I don’t know if Wyoming is leaving the majority of their delegates unbound or what the delay is.
re your comment, I wonder what Trump’s favorables are among suburban white women nationally.
I'm not sure you understand how rule 40 would play out in practice. Let's say that we get to the convention and Trump is the only one to get a majority of the delegates in 8 states but does not have a majority of delegates, and let's assume that they don't change the rule.
On the first ballot, Trump's name would be the only one placed into nomination. But unless he could persuade the uncommitted delegates to vote for him, he still would not win on the first ballot, because 1237 delegates is still needed.
Now we go to the second ballot, when most of the delegates are no longer bound. Cruz could persuade enough delegates in a few states where is already close to Trump (Louisiana, Kentucky, NC, etc) to switch sides to give him a majority of delegates in more than 8 states, so his name is now placed into nomination as well. And remember, just because the delegates were bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot doesn't mean that the delegate is actually a Trump supporter. Unless it is in a state where the candidates submit a slate of delegates, the delegates are usually long-time party activists, selected by the precinct, county and state party conventions - in other words, most of them are "establishment" Republicans...
I think Wyoming has a state convention yet in April.
Wyoming won’t be final until after the state convention, which will allocate the remainder.
Here I disagree with Trump. Just as the GOP has to follow the first round ballot rules and let Trump have the nomination if he has the pledged delegates, Trump has to deal with party sleaze if he doesn’t have the delegates. It will come down to political slime on one side, and “the Art of the Deal” on the other.
If Trump is a few delegates short on the first ballot and can’t make the necessary deals with delegates to get a second ballot nomination, despite GOP insiders trying to stop him, then he won’t be able to do much as president either. He has the leverage of angry voters if he’s perceived as being cheated, so he has a fair chance at this.
The likelihood is that on the first ballot, if Trump is the only nominee, he will get the bound delegates and a fair portion of the unbound delegates and a fair portion of those bound to candidates that dropped out.
In other words, Trump will probably win on the first ballot, even if he doesn’t have enough bound delegates.
What’s more, it looks like Trump will win California and NY. Trump is going to go to the convention with enough bound delegates.
Okay so Cruz has 4 and is likely to win Utah and Wyoming.
You got two more waiting in the wings that Cruz is leading in?
You’d better hope so, because if it makes it past the first ballot, he’s toast. And if he does get the nomination, it will be the biggest landslide since Reagan beat Mondale - with Trump playing the part of Mondale, not Reagan. When a Republican candidate can’t even win Utah, that is historic.
Good question. I know my point of view changed over about a two month period last summer and has solidified. Of the Republican/conservative women I know not one is for Trump. Pretty varied group. A few hardboiled New Yorkers, another few with young kids, some retired, some working in high-powered medical careers. Not one clutches her pearls or requires a fainting couch.
Most don’t care for Cruz and Kasich isn’t even discussed! They didn’t like Romney or McCain, but sucked it up on Election Day. It’s different with Trump. They can’t stand him.
Right.. Mormon Utah is not that important and does not speak for the rest of the conservatism.
Hey, you forgot Jeb!
Isn’t that awesome?
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