“Considering Trump has 65% to Cruz’s 12%, how can anyone say Cruz can beat Hillary???”
No Republican is going to beat a Democrat in New York in a general election.
Trump might be able to do it but you’re right, any other Republican, it would be a lock for Hillary.
He has a couple of months to get the job done.
No Republican is going to beat a Democrat in New York in a general election.
No republican was ever going to win NY in the general. That’s why states like Ohio and Florida are considered battleground states. New York is behind enemy lines.
For a little context, keep in mind that in 2012, Obama beat Romney by 28.2% in New York, and in 2008, Obama beat McCain by 27.9%In essence, this poll is saying that Trump actually betters Romney and McCain's efforts by ~10%.
If that is true, and if it generally carried nationwide, We'd be looking at Trump taking all of Romney's states from 2012, plus Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada in November. It would be a blowout for Trump.
Yep, you guys are exactly right, we have to be optimistic, but we have to be honest here. NYS is not in play as of today ( however, current events can change things on a dime ). Regardless, Trump should still campaign here ( and LA, SF, Chicago ) because it will drive the enemy crazy, put a huge dent in their bankroll and run up the popular vote as high as possible.
Now keep in mind that the most valuable voter anywhere is a direct (D)ummycrat crossover ( i.e., one who voted for Dumbo last time and switches to our guy this time ).
This is because getting newly first time votes results in the expected (R)+1. But crossover voters result in a (D)-1 and (R)+1 for a net 2. They are twice as valuable because literally each one of them is worth two new voters. They are the magic that flips purple states between a (D) or (R) victory. It is how 52-48 or 54-46 battleground states get nailed down.
Now here in my state of New York there is a stable spread of +2 Million for the (D)ummycrat socialists. To cover the approximately net 30% spread requires a huge 15% crossover because there are few new or old (R)'s and (C)'s to pull from. They're gone. Florida. Carolinas. Out west. We actually lose electoral votes after each census. We're down to 29 from about 43 when I started voting.
Now this state is NOT impossible. I would say none are truly impossible depending on current events ( e.g., a terrorist attack or stock market crash or another rapid fiscal crisis ). Nixon's landslide in 1972 was partially due to continuing street unrest since 1968 and the obvious perception that McGovern and Eagleton and Shriver were not going to keep things orderly.
The simultaneous effects of Trump being a homeboy headquartered in midtown, depressed (D)ummycrat turnout from a damaged candidate perhaps facing indictment ( or suffering from strategic Trump attacks ) combined with an energized (R)+(C) base and with a large amount of direct (D) crossovers could close that 30 points quickly. This poll placing Trump at -17% or -20% means that he literally is already along the required trajectory to get real close.
A half million, or 500,000 (D) crossovers up here would mean a net 1 Million and a close contest ( for NYS ) of around 4 Million - 3 Million. With some possible new voters plus a depressed (D) turnout this thing will wind up with a difference of far less than a million votes. My guess is we wind up in 56-44 or 54-46 territory at the end of the day which is how we used to go before and immediately after Reagan and Nixon.
This kind of thing though is exactly how the purple states will fall, probably 7 of the 12 by my count. And that is a win right there ( and if you look back to last summer, I started calculating this possibility about a month after Trump started showing populist synergy with the voters ).
And most interestingly, when you really press for (D) crossovers, there are some slightly less "Blue" states like NH ( 52-46 ) or OR ( 54-42 ) or WA ( 56-42 ) or even IL ( 58-42 ) which suddenly become excruciatingly painful ulcers for the (D)ummcrats. If you see any of them flip on election night, look out below.
NOTE: when talking about (D) and (R) in the above New York math it is only about actual ballot box results for the candidates, NOT party registration or the party line they voted on. The above numbers for (R) includes people who voted on the (C) line. We actually have a large (C) party here but that only has to do with registration, you can vote any line obviously. Naturally they cannot vote in the (R) primary though. Likewise the (G)reen and other Labor and Communist front parties appear in the (D)umbo vote totals.