Trump will get 70 to 75% of the delegates next Tuesday. Cruz 20 to 25% and Kasich maybe 5 to 10%, and this is conceding Utah to Cruz, which will likely end up mostly split between the two.
Cruz surrogates not even mentioning AZ on twitter. Conceding loss there, IMO.
I’m not sure how much the Governor’s endorsement will help Kasich.
In order to vote for Kasich, you have to decide to make your vote worthless. Kasich voters might just as well stay home on election day.
Strategic voting will be very much on voters’ minds Tuesday. I doubt that Kasich will break 10%, but even that might be enough to deny Cruz 50% plus one, but maybe not.
I’ll call it this way
Cruz: >50%
Trump: 35%
Kasich: <15%