Posted on 03/14/2016 9:10:11 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
Tuesday March 15, 2016
367 of 2,472 delegates at stake
For delegate allocation:
The Green Papers
For polling data:
Real Clear Politics
Vote Trump, good luck Mr. Trump
MP...? Must be a Canadian Primary.
Thanks for this informative post and the work you put into creating it.
MP is the postal abbreviation for the Northern Marianas Islands, technically the first winner-take-all contest for the GOP this year.
Home of the airstrip where the Enola Gay took off to nuke Japan.
Did Trump even address these smaller states/territories?
Cruz and Rubio have made more overtures to the territories. Some of the candidates have sent surrogates. Trump largely has not done much, except maybe make a radio appearance or two in some of them.
The Cruz campaign knows that winning a territory picks up an extra Rule 40(b) state, so they’ve been pretty organized there.
Honestly, however, I couldn’t tell you how the Northern Marianas Islands would vote.
Hopefully Cruz and his GOPe masters will be thoroughly defeated tomorrow ...
Bookmarked.
You’re welcome. I like a cheat sheet going into these primaries myself. It’s a lot easier for me to digest everything.
I don't know, I'm getting a bad feeling. Cruz is closing in Missouri and Illinois. One thing I think is happening that I hadn't thought of is that not all Republicans mind Cruz cozying up to the establishment.
In fact some of them like that because there's not really a viable candidate left in the establishment lane. Hope I'm wrong but don't know if he'll go away soon, at least not soon enough for me.
Great post...thanks
BWHAHAHAHA
Looks like the joke is on you.
Cruz will win North Carolina, Illinois, and Missouri. Kasich will win Ohio...and Trump will only win his adopted home state of Florida.
And then Rubio, and possibly Kasich will drop out...placing more candidates into the Ted Cruz camp.
Marking for reading as results come in.
Bookmark for later tonight.
I’m worried about minority violence against whites at the polls in Florida today. Sponsored by the left. It won’t be reported by the complicit media. I’m not trusting the entrenched bureaucracy/law enforcement to protect voters in any way. Florida law enforcement already looks the other way when it comes to arresting anyone who appears to be an illegal alien. And we have a lot of them down here. I think Florida will be Chicago now.
Kasich has no intentions of dropping out if he wins Ohio. He thinks he’s positioned to do well as the Trump alternative candidate in the Northeast. 538 gives him roughly an 80% chance of winning his home state.
There’s no objective evidence that Cruz wins North Carolina. 538 gives Trump an 89% chance of winning there to Cruz’s 11%. Polling suggests a 10-15 point Trump win there.
It’s roughly a 2-to-1 advantage for Trump winning Illinois over Cruz according to 538, but the delegates are likely to be split up.
The ballot is confusing in a way that would make Crook County proud. Not only do you have to vote for your candidate of choice once for the statewide tally, but you also have to vote individually for your candidate’s delegates on the same ballot.
Theoretically, although not realistically, you can split your delegate vote and a CD can end up with 2 delegates Cruz, 1 delegate Trump. But rather unlikely.
Cruz’s best chance is Missouri, but more likely than not no candidate will get to 50%. That will mean that the net gain for either Trump or Cruz will be negligible. If a candidate doesn’t get to 50%, it becomes winner take all by CD, with two extra delegate apportioned by CD (5 instead of the 3 you see in most states). The winner of the state gets a modest 12 extra delegates.
The problem with Missouri is that while there may be 20 polls in FL (all showing a Trump lead), there’s just one recent poll there and its from a University, not a professional pollster so to speak. However, historical data shows that the state favors the more social conservative candidate, which would favor Ted.
538 claims that the Northern Marianas Islands leadership actually supports Trump. This is a result of Carson throwing his support behind the Donald. They were with Dr. Carson before transitioning to Trump after Carson dropped out. However, we’ve all seen how a party establishment endorsement hasn’t exactly mattered much this cycle.
Sourcing: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/florida-ohio-republican-primary-preview/
More like dumbpappa. RCP has Cruz winning Nowhere.
Great weather in Ohio today. Mid-sixties and partly sunny. Rain/Thunderstorms after 10 PM.
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