I know you are arguing methodology here, but the variance of these polls are all over the map.
There seem to be two tranches of FL polls (at least as to the first place margin). And there is a ton of polling in Florida.
There’s a number of polls with around a 20-point lead. There were a few last week that were in the 6-12 point range. I think most of those in the 6-12 point range were using the registered voter file to select who is included.
The big nugget out of here is that one of those voter file polls moved closer to the 20 point range, which shows to me that Trump is going to win this thing handily tomorrow.
Second or third doesn’t matter in Florida. If Cruz beats Rubio, great. But they both get the same number of delegates. It’s just an embarrassment for Rubio and Cruz can claim to be the true alternative to Trump, but outside of that, it really doesn’t matter much.