I'm curious what the data looks like. Private transactions between individuals require no documentation, and excepting jurisdictions requiring registration or licensing, a paper trail will not exist. Guns in that category cannot be assumed to be "illegal". The laws regulating firearms purchases restrict the distribution of the background check paperwork, so how does the ATF do this?
” a paper trail will not exist “
...
Correct. There is no paper trail. The “trace” is an investigation.
The ATF contacts the manufacturer asking which licensed firearm dealer purchased that serial number. The ATF then contacts that licensed dealer, who is required to maintain paper records of the sale. If that is not the person who had the firearm when it was confiscated as evidence, I presume they ask that person what happened to it. Stolen? Private sale? etc.
Thankfully there IS no data base or federal paper trail.