Even if Cruz wins he loses. He's going to have to spend both time and money defending Texas as opposed to trying to compete in the other primaries.
Cruz’s best shots on Super Tuesday seem to be Texas and Arkansas. You’d also think Oklahoma is in play, but Trump has a small lead.
The deep South states of Georgia and Alabama strongly lean Trump at this point. The polling is sparse in Tennessee, but should follow Georgia and Alabama.
Trump’s a lock in Massachusetts and likely Vermont. He leads in Virginia.
Rubio’s best hope has to be in Minnesota.
Alaska is always a crapshoot. The Colorado caucus rules are odd and there’s no polling in Wyoming.
And that's what Cruz is doing trying to defend Texas from Trump. Ten out of the next eleven Cruz events are in Texas.