Posted on 02/23/2016 3:19:13 AM PST by Helicondelta
As previously mentioned, in order to try and dilute the overwhelming victories being achieved by candidate Donald J Trump the media continues to sell a specific narrative that Trump has a ceiling of support. The premise is that this "ceiling" can block Trump from running the table in state primary elections.
According to the punditry and professional political class, if the current field shrinks down, the non-Trump vote (Rubio or Cruz) will grow larger than Donald Trump's vote. Of course this ridiculous assertion assumes that any individual candidate's support will go monolithically 100% to the next candidate.
As an example they say: if Carson drops out, 100% his support would go to Ted Cruz. Or, if John Kasich drops out, 100% of his support would go to Marco Rubio.
However, a recent statistical analysis of this exact question has been conducted (yesterday) by Elon University polling in North Carolina (pdf here), and the factual results are entirely different.
...
What this graphic is showing. If they drop out:
31% of Jeb Bush support goes to Donald Trump 39% of Ben Carson support goes to Donald Trump 43% of Ted Cruz support goes to Donald Trump 29% of John Kasich support goes to Donald Trump 29% of Marco Rubio's support goes to Donald Trump
- Marco Rubio benefits the most from Bush dropping out picking up 33% of his support.
- Donald Trump benefits the most from Carson dropping out gaining 39% of his support. (However, Cruz gets 27% and Rubio 25% of it)
- Donald Trump benefits the most from Ted Cruz Dropping out gaining 43% of his supporters. (Marco Rubio gets 36% of it)
...
SUMMARY - There is no statistical analysis of this empirical data where the frontrunner, Donald Trump, doesn't continue leading even if the field shrinks.
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
Marxist memes for $100, Alex.
“Glass ceiling”, “vote ceiling”, “war on women”, “black lives matter”, “crony capitalism”
Mirrors on the ceiling,
pink champaign on ice.
We are all just prisoners here,
of our own device.
Welcome -
When Trump exceeds 40% in Nevada, today, the ceiling raises up a little more.
Trump will lose to Cruz today.
When Cruz loses Yuge tonight, please take that opportunity to stfu.
Plus, the more contests he wins, the more people will start voting for the winner as opposed to the guys who are perpetually fighting over 2nd and 3rd place. As Rubio and Cruz continue to lose primaries and caucuses, their donations will dry up, and their campaigns will begin to flounder, and will be unable to continue to afford to mount effective campaigns in upcoming primaries. Their voters will drift towards Trump, whose vote share will eventually grow into the 50’s, 60’s, and more.
Hate to break it to ya, but Cruz is not going to just disappear, and neither are we.
Cruz’s victory tonight is going to come as a HUGE shock to the sycophant Trump supporters.
Trump has failed time and time again to bust through the 30% ceiling. The reason is quite simple. Close to 70% of people have strong negative views of the man and his childish behavior.
Cruz victory tonight? Just what is your definition of victory, 3rd place?
50 percent polling in both Massachusetts and Florida presents a serious problem to the campaign. We Trump supporters need tamp that down to the permissible 35 percent.
[makes a large bowl of popcorn]
Y’all just keep me appraised of this little exchange come morning, ok?
There’s no one else who’s run for president in the 1990s or 2000s like Dubya & Trump in terms of personality.
Some Bush loyalists would vote for Jeb until he left the race.
The ONLY childish and frankly disgusting behavior
is by the Cruz lunatics who used dirty tricks
and lied. And that has landed on Sen. Goldman Sachs.
Cruz is hardly a factor in the race anymore.
SC, with Cruzes targeted evangelical vote mostly going to Trump clinched Cruz’s demise.
What planet are you living on and what drugs are you taking. LMAO
I think they underestimated the amount of Cruz supporters who would support Trump if Cruz dropped out and VASTLY overestimated what would go to the DESPICABLE LIAR Rubio.
Conservative Treehouse deserves MUCH more traffic than the lazy, mindless blogpimping Cruzbots at TheRightScoop. All Sooper and TRS do is post videos slamming Trump with NO original analysis whatsoever. Moreover CT has been 100% right all along, going back to last July.
I detest deconstructionists.
And it’s funny, but Cruz has yet to break 30 either, right? And except for Iowa, he’s *always* been behind Trump. And he just had to ask a high campaign official to step down.
It would be a huge shock to Cruz as well.
Back here in Reality Land Cruz will be lucky if he beats Kasich.
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