You’re not factoring in that Cruz is damaged goods because of the “take it to the limits (and then some)” campaign initiatives in Iowa and South Carolina. Democrats would connect him to Tricky Dick, not letting him be framed as the next Reagan. The icing on the cake would be some of the crazier quotes from Glenn Beck.
Not too hard for the Dems to do that, since DT already established the narrative for them to follow. DT is their dream candidate; "anti-immigrant, islamophobic" (Dem words, not mine) enough to be painted as an extreme bogeyman for their base, yet malleable (as Carter said) on healthcare, gay rights and Planned Parenthood.
I like Trump first, Cruz second. If Trump loses, we are looking at a Rino. Probably Rubio.