Hearts, like poker, is a game of hedging the odds over multiple hands. More often than not, you try to shoot the moon when you are dealt high risk cards in enough numbers and in a pattern that you can’t sluff your way out of trouble. When you are looking at a hand that is going to get you 10, 15, or 20 points after sluffing, trying to shoot the moon is often the lower risk play. Sometimes you get burned, but over eight or ten hands, the risk balances out.
Of course if you are dealt a lightly protected Q and/or have a bunch of high hearts but no ace you are at serious risk of 15+ points that changes the odds. If you play with passing, you have to factor in the anticipated pass. If you are playing with decent players who don’t dump the high heart at the first opportunity, it generally won’t work unless void in hearts. Anyway, in the abstract, shooting the moon is a showier, higher risk maneuver than ducking or feigning a moon shot.
| ...Trying to shoot the moon is often the lower risk play. And I think that's Cruz's strategy in this election cycle. From the beginning, he probably knew that his chances of getting the nomination this time were less than 50%. He's still got a decent chance of winning. But given the name recognition and experience he's gained from the campaign, he's already come out a winner. Cruz is a warrior. And as the Romans said: Fortune favors the brave.
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