ANOTHER SOUTH CAROLINA POLL

Powerline ^ | February 12,2016 | PAUL MIRENGOFF

[Hojczyk]

Okay, heres a South Carolina poll thats more in line than the one I mentioned yesterday with what I fear to be the case. Augusta Chronicle/ Morris News Service/Fox 5 Atlanta surveyed 779 likely GOP primary voters. The results are:

Trump 36 Cruz 20 Rubio 14.5 Bush 11 Kasich 9 Carson 5

These results are nearly identical to those reported by Marist/WSJ/NBC in mid-January, except that Kasich has gained substantially. Is it plausible to think the shape of the race really changed so little in South Carolina in the past three weeks? Yes, I think it is.

Maybe it will begin to change now, with all the negative ads being run and a debate to take place tomorrow. I sure hope so.

[Hojczyk]

Guess he is not a Trump supporter

[LS]

No, it won’t change. I think things have reached their level. Trump mid-30s, starting to push mid-40s nationally. Cruz 20 and slipping a little.

[The Iceman Cometh]

Kasich at 9. Don't see him taking from Cruz or Trump at this point. He'd have to coalesce the support from the other retreads.

Rubio might have the biggest target on his back at the debate tonight. I don't think it is likely that Cruz or Trump make a mistake either.

[usafa92]

This poll has been posted several times already. However, Lee Miringoff is a leftist hack in charge of the Marist poll

[WENDLE]

What a wonderful poll. After the loss of out beloved Judge Scalia it is all the more important to elect Donald Trump.

[SubMareener]

Just got a call from Cruz for President saying that the polls in South Caroline were close! LOL

[nopardons]

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!

And yes, this IS the way it is going to play out; happily!

[jobim]

I think Scalia's passing will have an impact on this race, but I can't say how.

Tonight's debate will elicit 2 responses out of each candidate:

1) What kind of SCOTUS judge will you appoint? Will there be stances on issues
that will eliminate candidates out of the box?

2) What should the Republican senators and reps do at this juncture?

It has been my hope that, were Trump to win, he would have the courage to begin the
discussion to shift power away from the SC to fed and state legislatures. I am hoping
tonight he will speak along these lines.

[TexasCruzin]

Yeah right, if they can call 19 points as close. (Fox poll this morning).

[Dave W]

Why?

[freedomjusticeruleoflaw]

Trump will win by 20. It’s over.

[Dave W]

And how would that be done? I’m interested in your point of view on that because that is something Trump would never be able to articulate.

[rwoodward]

The fact that there will be a Supreme court pick for the next President will have a major impact on voter turnout. Voter turnout will break all previous records.

[Dave W]

No, not yet. After SC, there are still 47 states to speak. Have you forgot about them? The reason is that Trump wins all the multi candidate polls, but loses all the one on one polls. So, once Kasich, Bush, Carson withdraws, the contests become a lot closer because most second preferences do not go to Trump. We really won't know much until March 1 when about 14 states vote.

[freedomjusticeruleoflaw]

Trump gets free PR. When Super Tuesday rolls around no one will be able to saturate TV with anti-Trump propaganda; too many outlets, not enough money. Delegates will pile up.

[WENDLE]

Because he is the only one that can actually win with the people.

[jobim]

Articulate, no. Lead a discussion of and movement toward, yes. Trump certainly has not
the expertise to cite law precedent, such as Cruz is able to do. But Trump can generally
frame the discussion, as any laymen might be able, given sufficient study and advisement.
What Trump does have is the courage of his convictions, and the energy to carry them through.

[JPG]

--Just got a call from Cruz for President saying that the polls in South Caroline were close!

Indeed they are! Trump is close to 40%.

[GeaugaRepublican]

Articulate, no. Lead a discussion of and movement toward, yes. Trump certainly has not
the expertise to cite law precedent, such as Cruz is able to do. But Trump can generally
frame the discussion, as any laymen might be able, given sufficient study and advisement.
What Trump does have is the courage of his convictions, and the energy to carry them through.

---

The people on Free Republic are very politically engaged, unlike the typical voter in a general election.

One of the biggest problems I saw during the Romney was the targeting of his messages. Obama messaging was multi lingual and targeted for a minimum of literacy. Romney’s materials always felt tailored to the college educated.

Romney talked over voters head; its tough to get elected when you do that.