Posted on 02/02/2016 2:37:51 PM PST by SeekAndFind
When do they get it right?
Uhm, yea...pollsters have always gotten Iowa wrong.
They had Trump winning from weeks ago
First, getting the polls wrong in Iowa is something of a tradition - its NEVER right.
Second, and more importantly, when is the last time that the GOP winner in Iowa went on to get the nomination, let alone win the Presidency? I guess that we’ll have to ask President Santorum that question.
Here’s a poll from the night before the Iowa Caucus:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3391158/posts
Trump Leads Cruz by 9 Points in Iowa on the Eve of the Caucuses — 34-25%
Donald Trump 34%
Ted Cruz 25%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 7%
Jeb Bush 5%
Rand Paul 3%
John Kasich 3%
Chris Christie 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 3%
Straight from the Commie playbook - procedural roadblocking.
I think the media is sort of let down. They were hoping for a Trump win.
The media are far less interested in the Republican slate than the Democratic, and the less they are able to influence the results, the less they care. Expect this to be a continuing pattern.
RE: Second, and more importantly, when is the last time that the GOP winner in Iowa went on to get the nomination,
Bob Dole won Iowa in 1996 and became the nominee.
George W. Bush and Al Gore BOTH won the Iowa caucus in 2000.
John Kerry won Iowa caucus in 2004.
Barack Obama won Iowa caucus in 2008.
Those were the last times.
Conclusion: Iowa does not necessarily predict the eventual winner or loser.
And here’s a poll from last week
According to the highly regarded poll from the Des Moines Register, Trump 25 percent to 22 percent, withd here’s a poll from last week
Selzer, touted as the best in the business has missed the candidate and number twice in a row. I have no doubt she is trying to get it right but her samples are not the same as actual turnout.
The only non-sitting president GOP candidate in 40 years to do so was George W. Bush.
Like Mike Huckabee in 2008, it may turn out to be Cruz's only victory.
There were two widely accepted possibilities - either Sanders OR Clinton was going to win, and the race between Sanders and Clinton resulted a third, in that they essentially tied.
He’s got Guam. I know it sounds silly, but they do have delegates.
Who tells the truth to a pollster?
Cruz cheated, announced Carson’s suspension during caucus, only needed four votes per precinct to pull it off.
Actually, per Nate Silver, for the IA Caucus (VERY difficult to poll) they were all within the margin of error.
They didn’t get it wrong.
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