Trump has final coveted lead from Des Moines Register, the so-called Iowa standard
Nate Silver ✔ @NateSilver538
Per our “polls-only” forecast, Trump has a 59% chance of winning Iowa and Cruz 32%. http://53eig.ht/1UQ34cB
Sad to read this...I know this poll has a great record.
Hanging in there with Cruz.
The previous Des Moines Register poll had Cruz up 3%. That’s an 8% swing in favor of Trump. The Huffington Pollster’s weighted average of recent polls now has Trump at an 8% lead in Iowa.
Cruz’s ground game and voter imitation mailer is going to have to be very very very strong to overcome Trump’s lead.
I’ve never got an answer to whether Iowa is winner take all.
The DMR endorsed Romney four years ago and Santorum ended up winning, not by much but he won. So I guess that can give some hope to Cruz supporters. Anything is bound to happen, especially if the weather is bad.
I read the article, something of a rarity on this forum, and the fundamentals don’t look good for Trump.
Once the Cruz voters drag all their churchgoing friends and family to the caucuses, he should get the bump he needs to win. Go Cruz!
I’m most interested to see whether the YUGE crowds and polls are reflected in the caucus voting.
Someone said here that this poll was 10 points off in 2012.