[Pappy Smear]

Not saying Cruz is going to get the nomination. I don't think that is likely. But Cruz is going to win Iowa by 6 or 7%. The polls are garbage in their design for a caucus. They wildly over-estimate voters. The models they are using are predicting a 50% bigger turnout than the biggest ever. Ain't happnin'.

When you shrink the number, it shifts clearly to the typical Iowa caucus voter, which tends to be on the evangelical side, which as a whole, are clearly for Cruz.

If I'm wrong, I'll eat a handful of raisins. And I hate raisins.

[VanDeKoik]

“But Cruz is going to win Iowa by 6 or 7%. The polls are garbage in their design for a caucus”

If polls are not reliable, then gut feelings aren’t any better.

“The models they are using are predicting a 50% bigger turnout than the biggest ever. Ain’t happnin’.”

Why? Because....feelings?

[xzins]

Pollster Pat Cadell made a prediction based on turnout. Granted the turnout models are vastly over-estimating turnout. However, Cadell’s prediction was based on a normal model. He said that a standard turnout of 120,000 was in favor of Cruz, but that 140,000 or higher will be a Trump victory.

[jennings2004]

How about prunes? :)