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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Quit posting some Red Stater’s comments as news. You’re delusional.


10 posted on 01/13/2016 12:23:59 PM PST by McGruff (It's us against the Uniparty now.)
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To: McGruff; All

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/13/ted_cruz_donald_trump_running_neck_and_neck_in_iowa.html

“......Of the six state surveys taken in the new year, Cruz led three and Trump led three, with neither man posting an advantage of more than 4 points. The RealClearPolitics average of those polls, meanwhile, has Cruz with a scant, half-point lead on Trump, 26.7 percent to 26.2 percent-down from four points shortly before Christmas. (Rubio currently sits in a distant third place with 13 percent.) Based only on the state polls, Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight team peg Cruz’s current chances at winning the caucus at 42 percent, and Trump’s chances at winning at 40 percent.

Still, Cruz shouldn’t panic. The polls tell us much more about today than they do about Feb. 1, when Iowans will officially kick off the 2016 presidential nominating contest. With less than three weeks to go until then, more than half of the respondents in the Register poll said that they could still be persuaded to back a different candidate (though those backing either Trump or Cruz are the most likely to say their mind has been made up). That could create a serious opening for Cruz, who is the second-choice of 23 percent of Iowa Republicans, compared with 11 percent for Trump. The doom-saying senator also appears to have the advantage when it comes to ground-level organization in the state, something that has traditionally been integral in a contest that sees only about 1 in 5 registered Republicans show up to caucus. Meanwhile, when Silver and his team factor in endorsements and national polls, they see Cruz’s chance of an Iowa victory rising to 50 percent and Trump’s falling to 26 percent. (FiveThirtyEight has found some evidence it may actually be a bad thing in the long term to be doing better in national polls relative to early state surveys, which is one reason Trump’s prospects drop when you add other factors to the state poll numbers.)

In the end, Iowa might serve as a microcosm for the entire GOP campaign:................”


11 posted on 01/13/2016 12:26:51 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: McGruff

Is your comment to me “news?”


12 posted on 01/13/2016 12:27:58 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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