[expat_panama]

The wealth question is that answered by the fact that in the U.S. average real per person wealth is at an all time high.  Well, actually, it's just barely higher than it was over a decade ago and this is after 8 years of squallor.  Some 'wealth'.  The more important question is weather stock market prices mean anything to the vast majority of the U.S. that does not earn a living in the financial sector --and the answer is absolutely.

The debate is over "why",  It may be this 'wealth effect' that when stocks go up we get richer.  It may also be that when folks don't buy stocks they're not investing and that means businesses can't get going.  The other possibility is that stock traders can see the future and are simply reading the writing on the wall...

[expat_panama]

Good moring campers after yesterday's "upside reversal in rising volume"-- wow, soo many big words that don't make sense.   English translation: stocks flat.    Right now futures traders see things mixed/flat w/ stocks but CRASHING w/ everything else:

Only report todays is JOLTS - Job Openings (maybe someone here can explain what that is...).  News:

China, oil still hanging over Wall Street Overnight news will likely again be key for stock market action Tuesday, as Wall Street will be watching China for any further weakening in the yuan.

Oil prices plunge, and the bottom is not yet in sight! Economic Times - 4 hours ago By Jad Mouawad The continuing collapse in commodity prices pushed oil futures still lower Monday, and analysts predicted that the slide was far from over.

Yes, the Stock Market Will Crash, but Only After This Brief Rally The S&P 500 stock market index (^GSPC) is headed for its worst slide in years, but it will only come after a brief rally. Here's why. TheStreet.com

We're Entering "Irrational Pessimism" Period - David Rosenberg, Nat'l Post
RBS Advising Clients 'Sell Everything' - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph
Investor's Need Be Wary of Irritable Anecdotes - Cliff Asness, AQR Capital
The Great Benefit Of a Falling Stock Market - John Kimelman, Barron's

 

 

[pieceofthepuzzle]

Did the recession ever end? It's hard to know the truth, because IMHO one cannot trust the numbers. What sector is going to lead a comeback, by the way?

The tech sector has tons of competition, and people are becoming saturated with gadgets (plus with another downturn in the economy won't be in the position to keep updating the technology they own).

The biotech/pharma/medical device sectors are all reeling a bit from regulation and taxes (which is why Pfizer merged with Allergan - to avoid US taxes).

Auto? Not a likely candidate.

Manufacturing? Of what?

[dynoman]

You forgot - the stock market swoon exists in Trump’s desperate imagination only. It’s not real. I read it here on FR so it must be true.

[Darksheare]

The Obama depression never ended.
The market will crash.
How, when, and why is still speculative.
But this will be...interesting to watch play out.

[palmer]

Exports constitute only 13% of U.S. GDP; the other 87% reflects domestic demand.

They make it sound like that is a good thing.

[Chode]

In December, payroll employment expanded by a strong 292,000...

ya GOTTA be kiddin me!

[Roman_War_Criminal]

Retailers are dying. This is going to be an ugly year.

[Jumper]

Exports, if actually up to 13% of the US economy is a big deal... Historically, it has been 10% or less so even a 3% drop back to historical levels would have ramifications inside the US (labor markets, stock markets, Fed Reserve planning, State/Federal tax revenue, etc.). The country will suffer a corresponding global drop in valuation, and the banks under the G20/G9/G7 and Reserve Banks will manage this drop in economic activity. Maybe this is how the Fed gets the printed money out of the US and World Economy?

[r_barton]

The Stock Market is so manipulated (by the Gov’t and Big Money). You might as well go to a casino and predict the economy by watching their crap games.

[SampleMan]

When it comes to economics, politicians are always convinced that they "need to do something", worse they think they actually can.

Every times since the mid 80's the Fed has tried to fix recessions by lowering interest rates. The effect has been to corrupt the natural capital market and in all likelihood extend the recessions.

But note that there has never been enough economic momentum to get the rates back to where they were, and during this last one we bounced around on the floor at 0%.

Now the next recession is starting and there is no room for the Fed to drop rates, unless they start paying people to take their money.

[1Old Pro]

We have been in a recession the entirety of the Obama socialist Presidency.

[Sam Gamgee]

I see the market as completely out of touch with reality. World recovery rests on the china miracle that has now ended.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

We’re still in the Obama depression. The stock market is reflecting that Obama is still in office for another year and doesn’t care how bad he hurts us.

[1Old Pro]

The Obama Great Recession