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Posted on 01/11/2016 3:55:59 PM PST by dynoman
CLEAR LAKE, Iowa-Nathan Hanson and Rich Lewerke are perhaps the most discussed, most invisible and most important people in Iowa politics: Long-time Iowans who have never attended a caucus before but say they will do so for the first time on Feb. 1 to vote for Donald Trump.
"It's almost like Republicans don't want Trump, even though a lot of the American people do," added Lewerke, 52, a building contractor. "So I do think it's very important to caucus this time."
"Never caucused before," said Bob, a former Mitchell County supervisor. "Haven't, but we're going to," added Donna.
I asked whether they were Republicans. "Hell, yeah," said Donna. So why haven't they attended caucuses? "I guess because there wasn't a candidate that I believed in as much as this one," Donna explained, nodding to the Trump signs around us.
Recent polls indicate how important previously uninvolved voters will be for Trump. The new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist Iowa poll applied a screen to identify voters who have taken part in caucuses in the past and are most likely to do so again. Among those likely caucusgoers, Ted Cruz leads the Iowa race, 28 percent to Trump's 24 percent. But among potential caucusgoers - those who don't have a history of caucusing but might this time - Trump leads Cruz, 26 percent to 24 percent. (In both scenarios, Marco Rubio is a distant third.)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
That's the real wild card. Or should I say Trump card?
Trump card - I like that!
Trump supporters will show up in Iowa for caucus in huge numbers. Good to see some reporting on it!!!
Team Trump continues to maintain radio silence about its operations and ground game in Iowa. So the press has to go to his potential new caucus voters instead. They are the true ‘fog’ in this upcoming war.
I was told the Iowa caucus are “intimidating and uncomfortableâ€. What’s that all about? What a bizarre process. It’s almost as if they want to discourage folks from getting involved.
Didn’t Iowa go with Obama last time?
I asked whether they were Republicans. "Hell, yeah," said Donna. So why haven't they attended caucuses? "I guess because there wasn't a candidate that I believed in as much as this one," Donna explained, nodding to the Trump signs around us.
That's why I think we are in for a big surprise on caucus night. Normally these events do not excite the average Iowan. They'd rather stay home and watch it on TV. It didn't much matter to them who won anyhow so they stayed home. So typically only 20% of eligible Republicans show up and most of those are the evangelicals who appear to thrive on choosing an unlikely candidate and sending a lightning bolt across the nation (i.e. Santorum; Huckabee).
Well those evangelicals might find themselves swamped this time around. Santorum won the caucus in 2012 with less than 30,000 statewide votes (the margin was only 38 vote). Trump could quite possibly draw 100,000 voters who never participated before. If he does that, it will shock the nation.
Btw I was told this by a guy from Iowa who posts here, that they Iowa caucuses are “intimidating and uncomfortable” process. When I asked why, he couldn’t tell me.
I would guess this is a really good way to discourage folks from getting involved in Iowa.
Just weird.
And the DemocRATS will be in a coma.
Reported years ago that the establishment intimidates small numbers or individuals and pushes them out of the discussion.
Only by attending in groups do they get to participate. Trump WILL organize the groups
I think all caucuses are intimidating and uncomfortable. At least the ones in Nevada are. I hate them. They are designed to stop the average voter from showing up.
I keep saying that Trump’s poll numbers will unexpectedly surge right before Feb 1 probably 5-10% above Cruz. They have already started to surge.
If indeed 100,000 show up for Trump, it will be something to behold. Trump can win by 70% or more.
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Was that FR poster a Trump supporter?
Hold on a sec, I’ll dig up the post.
If anything the Iowan Trump crowd will intimidate whoever gets in their way. Every Trump supporter has the Trump spirit and the Trump spirit likes to win and will in on Feb.1.
I do believe that. I believe we in Nevada will deal with the caucus and overrun any in our way also.
The Democrat and GOP caucuses, from what I’ve read, are run completely differently. The Dems separate into support groups and lobby each other to change to another group....plus I think there’s a threshold they have to reach before their group’s vote counts for their candidate, say 10% of everyone present at that caucus, for example. (I don’t know the exact percentage, but I think that’s how it works.)
Then after all the hassling and haggling, they count the members in each candidate’s group, so it’s a very open, and probably stressful, process.
At the GOP caucus they listen to a few speeches from supporters of various candidates and then each caucus attendee casts a secret ballot for his or her preferred candidate. After that, they can leave or stay to conduct further party business. That makes it a much more traditional voting environment, and far more relaxed, I would think.
If there’s someone from Iowa who disagrees, or has something to add or correct, feel free....
Let’s think logically. Trump supporters are folks who go out in all kinds of weather, drive great distances, stand in line forever even knowing they might be in an overflow room, to hear Trump speak. Of course they’ll show up for a caucus.....it’ll be like a rally where they’ll be surrounded by like-minded people.
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