This is The Last Hurrah For Job Growth

RCM ^ | 01/10/2016 | By Louis Woodhill

[SeekAndFind]

Friday's "Employment Situation" report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that December was a very good month for jobs. FTE* employment rose by 481,000. This complemented the unexpectedly large increase of 292,000 in payroll employment. Labor force participation edged upward in December, providing welcome relief from the relentless slide of this important indicator that has occurred during the Obama years.

Unfortunately, December's numbers may very well be the last hurrah for jobs, as the economy slips into recession. It is worrisome that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.23% during 2015, after rising during each of the six previous years. And, it's difficult to interpret the 6.19% plunge in the Dow during the first week of 2016 trading as anything other than a recession warning sign.

If the economy had a bridge like the starship Enterprise, red lights would be flashing right now, and sirens would be sounding. Yes, the Federal Reserve's "GDPNow" model is still predicting that real GDP (RGDP) grew at a 0.8% annualized rate during 4Q2015, but it is important to remember that the 2008 - 2009 recession was not recognized for what it was until a full year after it started. And, the RGDP numbers that were reported during that period were subsequently revised sharply downward.

Even if the economy did, in fact, enjoy positive growth during 4Q2015, there is no way that FTE jobs can continue to grow at a 2.56% annual rate while the economy is growing at 0.80%. The unemployment rate has traditionally been a "lagging indicator" of the state of the economy, so we would expect to see other signs of an oncoming recession before we observed a downturn in jobs.

And, we are seeing such recession warning signs-lots of them.

[Sgt_Schultze]

Then again, there's this assessment.

[stocksthatgoup]

Predict loud and often. When wrong never admit it. When right never let them forget it.
Economics 437 Master Class building your reputation!

[DH]

They have to be pulling these wonderful figures out of their collective butts!

The “trickle down” damage caused by the current oil crisis has destroyed (in my opinion) at least 20% of the decent jobs in Texas alone. My town now has for sale, for rent and for lease signs everywhere. The large companies like Halliburton and others have closed their huge yards here and drilling rigs are stacked everywhere.

EVERYONE is affected by this depression and I simply can’t believe that anyone would believe the propaganda spewed forth from the liberal government and media.

It’s real, it’s here and It’s gonna come home to see all!

[Grampa Dave]

Big lies!

Stockman: Only 11,000 Jobs Last Month, Not 292,000
NewsMax ^ | 01/09/2016 | David Stockman
Posted on 1/11/2016, 4:06:12 PM by GilGil

So what happened to the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) job count in December at similar points late in the course of prior cycles? Well, in December 1999 about 140,000 jobs were added and in December 2007 there was a NSA gain of 212,000. This time we got the magnificent sum of 11,000, and by the way, last year was only 6,000.

The real news flash in the December “jobs” report, therefore, is that even by the lights of the BLS’ rickety, archaic and virtually worthless establishment survey, the domestic economy is dead in the water. We are not on the verge of “escape velocity,” as our foolish monetary politburo keeps insisting; the US economy is actually knocking on the door of recession.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3382446/posts

[pinqy27]

How come you didn’t mention that the unadjusted change in jobs for December went down every year from 2000 to 2013? That it went up at all in 2014 and 2015 is a positive sign and therefore reflected in the adjusted numbers as a large positive.

[Grampa Dave]

Is that you, Podesta!

pinqy27
Since Oct 23, 2015