Posted on 01/10/2016 8:15:08 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
His ground game, primarily.
Ted Cruz is currently the favorite in Iowa by a country mile, he has the ground game, the right endorsements, and most importantly a core group of passionate voters who have a proven history of showing up at a caucus.
Outside of Iowa is where things get tricky for Ted. If Trump comes in at a comfortable #2, he will most likely win New Hampshire, and if he wins New Hampshire, he will most likely win South Carolina... Then there’s Nevada which could go either way...
So if after the first four contests we are at Cruz 1, Trump 2, and one toss-up in Nevada, Super Tuesday is looking to be the decider...
Right now Super-Tuesday looks like this:
Trump is up 20 in Alabama
Alaska hasn’t been polled in 7 months
Trump is up 13 in Arkansas
Colorado hasn’t been polled since November but Carson was ahead
Trump is up 20 in Georgia
Trump is up 20 in MA
Trump up 7 in MN (Last poll November)
ND hasn’t been polled
Trump is up 32-28 on Cruz in OK
Trump is up 34-26 on Cruz in TN
Trump is up 31-27 on Cruz in TX
Trump is up by 11 in VT
Trump is up 9 in VA
WY hasn’t been polled in 7 months...
EVERYTHING rests on Iowa. If Cruz can smash Trump in Iowa, and Trump’s voters actually don’t show up, he will implode and this race will be in Cruz control. If Trump’s voters ACTUALLY show up, and he loses a tight race to Cruz in Iowa, BUT wins New Hampshire then I give the edge to Trump.
Right now I think this is Trump’s race to lose, and Ted’s to win.
“He is now #1 amongst the Republican candidates in favorability.”
So you look at national numbers only when it suits you.
...The problem is crossover support. Obama, unfortunately, had Repub voters wanting to prove they weren’t racists.
Cruz cannot sweep into the White House on Republican support alone. Bernie has the same problem, not a single repub would vote for him.
If he’s up to 16, is that the surge I’ve heard so much about?
Shhh.
Don't disturb The Narrative: Trump's huge rallies won't translate into votes, especially in Iowa. He has no ground game.
/s
“explain his leading the polls in Iowa and California? “
Iowa ALWAYS gets it right and California is heavily evangelical. /sarc
He’s also first in favorability in some of the states. Nice try, though.
He’s also first in favorability in some of the states. Nice try, though.
Cruz has done a great job of building a coalition of solid, no compromise conservatives. However, he’s seen by a lot of us as the last chance. If he loses the primary, especially to a liberal that many of our pundits are telling us is great, I think many of us will be demoralized. If our side is stupid enough to nominate Trump, what chance do we have? What I’m saying is I don’t think Cruz will be the most powerful Republican even if he loses because the party won’t matter and conservatism won’t matter.
Cruz or lose.
I forget, the thousands are waiting in line and filling stadiums to see a freakshow, and then vote for someone else...
Trumpets slay me.
Totally ignore my point as well:
...The problem is crossover support. Cruz doesn’t have it. Neither did Rommney/Ryan, McCain/Palin, etc.
Wait until the debates are paired down to three candidates. This is where it will show. As of now Trump has been able to squeeze between people fighting it out on stage and making his case to the media. Once it get down to three and he has to state with substance positions he will have to do so while utilizing cohesive thought.
Something up to this point he really hasn’t been able to do.
That’s a lie.
If he’s done this well at 41% without cohesive thought, what’s Ted’s excuse?
Primaries are about momentum.
But Dubya in 2004 and Poppy in 1988 did?
Does Ted usually wine and dine 15 donors at a time? That's a whole lot of begging over a single dinner meeting.
You finally resorted to the name calling?
I don’t care how long you’ve been here or how much you post. You just joined the kids table.
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