The worst are the sports parents who think their kids are D1 athletes. Unless your kid is the best player from that county in a generation, they are not going D1.
Yes and no!
For the most part, you are correct, but it depends on the student and school.
My son attends an Independent School where 13 of 67 graduating seniors are playing D1 sports.
There are really four factors:
The students’ ability in that sport is obviously paramount.
The students’ academic credentials.
The schools’ reputation for producing quality all around students.
The students’ need for financial aid.
Quite a few of the students get picked to play D1 because they are all around good students and don’t require a full ride scholarship. The school can then spread that money around more widely.
We have had swimmers recruited to UCLA and tennis players go to Dartmouth who were State Champs. But going to Ohio State for golf or Miami University for hockey can be from the right mix of the above.