Er, no. Trump has been gaining consistently in IA, up from the 19 range when Carson was ahead to 31 in this poll. Yes, Cruz has moved faster, but it’s simply wrong to try to portray Trump as “flat.” He is exactly where he is in almost every national and other state poll.
Trump will never get more than 27% in IA. Not going to happen.
Linn County (Cedar Rapids) is a MUST win for Trump.
2008 Total Caucus Votes: 7,881
2012 Total Caucus Votes: 8,718
2008 Results:
Huck - 2,013 - 26%
Romney -2,435 - 31%
Thompson - 1,157 - 13%
McCain - 948 - 12%
Paul - 861 - 11%
Guliani - 401 - 5%
Hunter - 27/0%
Others - 41/0%
2012 Results:
Gingrich - 1,017 - 12%
Romney - 2,530 - 29%
Perry - 786 - 9%
Bachmann - 411 - 5%
Paul - 2,089 - 24%
Santorum - 1,818 - 21%
Huntsman - 64 - 1%
Others - 3 - 0%
Total 2004 General Election Votes: 110,740
Bush - 49,442 - 45% to Kerry - 60,442 - 55% + Others
Total 2008 General Election Votes: 113,707
McCain - 43,626 - 39% to Obama - 68,037 - 60% + Others
Total 2012 General Election Votes: 118,711
Romney - 47,622 - 40% to Obama - 68,581 - 58% + Others
Percentage of GOP Caucus Turnout based on final vote total for McCain and Romney:
2008: 7881/43626 = 18.0%
2012: 8718/47622 = 18.3%
Based on this, projected turnout from Linn County would be steady, about 18%. GOP Voters have decreased in the last decade, but to be competitive in the state, the GOP needs to win at least 43% of the vote. The projected 2016 General Election turnout is about 121,000 votes which means the GOP Candidate needs to get about 52,030 votes in November.
18.0% * 52,030 = Projected Caucus Turnout: 9,365 Voters
An increase of 600 voters. Trump is looking for an increase of 2K or more. It just doesn’t look possible at this moment, mainly because Linn has grown more Blue than Red.
As for the 9,365 Votes:
Cruz is currently running better than Santorum and Huckabee. At a Minimum, he has about 2,400 votes - 26%
Trump needs at least 40% here if he has any ideas of winning IA. That would be 3,746 Votes. While a 1,300 vote win in Linn would be good, he needs a 3-4K vote win there along with the other “blue” counties to have a chance. And based on the numbers I don’t see that. Based on the CBS Poll, I’d say he’s got just under 3000 votes here.