Standing next to Trump in the debate didn't hurt him either. And there are still two more debates in January when the more apolitical people will start paying attention.
Trump/Cruz 2016
“then the game resets.”
LOL. Ask Santorum if there was a reset for him. He finished fourth in NH, third in SC, third in FL..
Sounds like Cruz may be well ahead of the ground game in NH.
If he finishes no lower than 2nd in NH, he’ll be the nominee.
Rubio has a cheesy smile. Sorry, but that says something.
Standing next to Trump in the debate didn't hurt him either. And there are still two more debates in January when the more apolitical people will start paying attention.
Gonna just make my prediction now. Ted Cruz is gonna win the nomination. Everything is just lining up perfectly for him at just the right time. He has all the momentum.
If you want a repeat of the Johnson/Goldwater election, than Cruz is your guy.
“Cruz will dominate Iowa— then the game resets. “
Yep, just like the GOP primary Iowa winners in 2012 and 2008, Santorum and Huckabee. The reset from first place to dropping out. Iowa is a jinx.
Completely depends.
It’s a game of expectations too.
If Cruz is expected to win and wins by a small margin, he wont get much of a bump from Iowa.
If Trump is expected to win and Cruz were to win instead, Cruz would get a huge bump.
If Cruz is expected to win, but then not only wins, but wins BIG, then he would get a bump.
Trump has a much lower hurdle to cross to get a massive bump from Iowa in my opinion, because a LOT of professionals dont think his poll numbers will translate to actual votes. So if the votes in Iowa are even CLOSE to what he is polling.... that would basically indicate the race is over and Trump has the nomination.
6.9 POINT MARGIN OF ERROR!! This is a desperation psy-ops poll behind the CBS label it’s another Register Poll and it actually shows Cruz lost a point since their last poll. A PPP poll has Trump + 3 which fits a 6.9% margin of Error.
Turn off the alarm bells; shut off the strobe lights.
By far the thing that made me smile the most in those polls?
Goober Graham at 1% .... In South Carolina!
God is good.
Hank
Cruz will win Iowa - and nothing else..
these polls are interesting but its the voting that matters.
looking forward to Cruz dominating in the primaries. Then if Carson etc drop out Cruz gets their voters
I have been taking the top four polls each week and averaging them. Here are this week's polls:
And here is what the trend lines look like by candidate over the entire time:
Those number speak for themselves.
I then compare my averages and trend lines to Real Clear Politics who also does averaging of the major polls...but they use more. Here's how their numbers look:
Tracking very close.
Trump continues to rise...but Cruz is rising too. In my averages, the two of them now have just under 51% of the polling. Real Clear Politics has them even higher at 51.6%.
Carson has dropped off to 9%, Rubio is around 10%. This means the top four are polling 70% of the polling data now.
Everyone else is polling at 4.5% or less.
Right now it is a two man horse race, with Trump well out in front, but Cruz continuing to rise.
IMHO, they should only allow the top four on the main stage in the future debates.