Sorry but I just don’t see this happening. I’d like to see Cruz win Iowa but I think Trump will run the table after that.
It really depends on what Trump’s ceiling is for his numbers. If Trump maxes out at 35%, the he is very vulnerable after New Hampshire. If his max is 45%, then he could easily run the table.
Now, I have been wrong about candidate still being in the race in mid-December. (Who would have guessed back in August that we would have 13 candidates debating in 2 days?) But Iowa should start to clear the field.
So let’s say that coming out of Iowa, we have 4 candidates drop out: Santorum, Huckabee, Pataki, and Paul.
So who picks up that support?
In New Hampshire right now, we see it at (RCP average):
Trump - 28.7
Rubio - 12.0
Christie - 10.3
Cruz - 9.7
Undecided - 9.0
Kasich - 7.3
Bush - 7.0
Carson - 6.7
Fiorina - 4.7
Paul - 2.7
Huckabee - 1.0
Graham - 0.3
Santorum - 0.3
Pataki - 0.3
That is correct. Undecided is in 5th place in New Hampshire. It is seriously unlikely that many of those undecideds will break to people below the top four. Most people who are undecided are just seeing which of the most popular appeals to them the most on the day of voting. They want their vote to matter, so they won’t waste it on someone who can’t win.
That means that Trump will likely be in the mid to upper 30’s on that day. Of the four candidates that I see dropping out after Iowa, I think maybe only Santorum will endorse right away, and I think he will endorse Rubio.
So if my future glasses are working, I think New Hampshire will end up with:
Trump - 36
Rubio - 20
Cruz - 14
Christi - 9
Kasich - 7
Bush - 6
Fiorina - 4
Carson - 3
Graham - 1
At that point, the field really narrows. Christi and Kasich don’t have the money or organization to continue. Fiorina could continue, but she won’t throw good money after bad. She will go back to California and probably try for the Senate again. Carson will pack it up as he won’t be pulling in any more money. And then there were 5 for South Carolina, including the delusional Lindsey Graham.
Right now for the 5 candidates left in my musings, the ratings are:
Trump - 29.8
Cruz - 14.5
Rubio - 13.5
Bush - 6.8
Graham - 2.3
That leaves 33.1% of the votes either undecided or in the column of candidates who will be out by the time of the primary.
And this is where Trump’s ceiling comes into play: If it is 35%, he will likely lose to either Cruz or Rubio in South Carolina. If Bush and Graham are still in the race, they split votes away from Rubio, giving Cruz the best chance.
If Trump can expand to 45%, then he wins and is set to sweep the rest of the race.