Posted on 12/10/2015 8:01:32 AM PST by SeekAndFind
I used to feel bad for Jeb because he was so overmatched in his war of words with Trump, but Trump doesn’t bother much with him now that he’s faded in the polls. Lately I feel bad for him because no matter how far he falls and how much people goof on his struggles, he and his team seem dead set on staggering on to New Hampshire.
His ads may be ineffective and his media appearances may be completely overshadowed by Trump’s, but there’s simply no way Bushworld will accept the humiliation of quitting the race before any votes have been cast. Somehow, some way, in the final week before New Hampshire votes, Republicans there are going to cast away Rubio, Christie, and Kasich and decide that Bush was the guy they were looking for all along. That’s their plan for victory (or a top three finish at least), as near as I can tell. I wonder, though, how much of that attitude is honestly shared by Jeb himself and how much of it is being impressed upon him by the Bush family and their constellation of donors and consultants, starting with Super PAC chief Mike Murphy. I’ve started to think of Jeb as an old horse pulling a cart packed with people up a hill. They keep flogging him because, if only as a matter of pride, they’re sure he can make it to the top. They trained him; they’ve made this hill with other horses before; they know they can do it. And meanwhile, it’s obvious to everyone else watching that not only aren’t they going to make it this time, they’re killing the horse in insisting that he try.
Unhitch the cart and let this poor guy go home, for cripes sake.
The group, Right to Rise, has already gone through nearly half of the $103 million it brought in during the first half of the year, records show. It raised only about $13 million in the five months that followed, according to a person familiar with the figure.
That leaves the super PAC with around $67 million heading into the first 2016 nominating contests. The sum still surpasses the resources of rival groups, but it is not clear whether Right to Rise’s financial might — viewed earlier this year as Bush’s distinct advantage — will be enough to help separate him from the pack…
Despite the gusher of door-hangers, mailers, online ads and TV spots produced by Right to Rise, however, Bush now hovers between 3 and 5 percent in national polls — down from 12 to 15 percent in mid-July.
In Iowa, where Right to Rise has spent nearly $9.4 million since late June, Bush remains stalled in single digits there. After the group blanketed New Hampshire with $18.5 million worth of TV ads and yard signs touting Bush, he dropped from double-digit standing to between 5 and 9 percent support. And in South Carolina, the former governor has fallen out of the top three GOP presidential contenders, despite a $6.5 million super PAC barrage on his behalf.
Here’s what $50 million in spending gets you. The black line represents Jeb’s favorable rating, the red line his unfavorable:
The coup de grace for Jeb 2016, I think, is Christie’s small but important surge in New Hampshire over the last few weeks. If Bush’s only competition there was Rubio and Kasich, you can sort of see if you squint hard how Jeb might think late deciders would break for him. Kasich has declined in the state and seems to annoy people more after each debate. Rubio’s age and lack of executive experience might weigh heavily on voters trying to decide between him and Jeb if Bush looks like he stands a chance of winning. With Christie rising, though, and growing more popular after his debate appearances, it’s hard to imagine how Bush elbows him and Rubio out of the way in the last few days to become the consensus choice of anti-Trumpers. But this is ultimately a chicken-and-egg thing. Is Bush doomed because Christie is catching on or is Christie catching on because Bush seems doomed? New Hampshirites have had a long look at Jeb thanks to Right to Rise’s ad campaign. And yet Bush is at six percent in one of the last few polls taken in the state and five percent in another.
Here’s the story of the whole campaign in two ads. The first is Right to Rise’s new spot about national security; the second is something some Trump staffer threw together and posted on Instagram. Which one is more memorable? Exit question: Today Scott Walker called on Republican candidates to drop out of the race in the name of consolidating the center-right against Trump — but he didn’t say which ones. The whole problem in New Hampshire is that Rubio, Bush, Christie, and even Kasich are banking on late-deciders to flock to them, which means they all have a strong incentive to hang in there. If Walker wants to clear the field for an anti-Trumper, isn’t he obliged to say which anti-Trumper that should be? You don’t solve a prisoner’s dilemma by pointing out that someone should eventually defect.
He must be running all of these ads on MSNBC, LOGO or Lifetime because I have never seen one.
The Edsel, the Betamax, New Coke, Pepsi AM, RJ Reynolds Smokeless Cigarettes, Microsoft Zune, Mobile ESPN, Joost, the Nook, Jeb Bush.
Jeb runs ads here in middle America non-stop on Fox. Every stupid commercial there’s a Jeb ad.
Well.... his consultants aren't going to advise him to do that.
Because, then, that's the end of the gravy train for them.
Reminds me of Mitt Romney's campaign. I seldom saw a tv ad for him the whole time he was running for President. I did see the Bain attack ads though — seemed like every half hour.
They’re spending a ton of money in Kansas which has 6 electoral votes. Go figure.
Someone stick a fork in him....I think he’s done.
Saturate your opponent with negative TV ads.
That is SOOOOOO 1992.
Jeb is becoming more and more irrelevant with each passing day...as well he should in this race.
Lately, his response to Trump's proposal regarding temporarily halting Islamic entry into the U.S. just further reflects it.
What is the actual truth of the matter? Is Trump's proposal illegal? Is his proposal un-Constitutional? Is his proposal un-American?
Whenever the president finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, the president may, by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate.
This is in the U.S. Code of Laws. It was passed by Congress in 1952 and has been the law of the land ever since. And, by the way, at the time it was passed by a Democratic Congress.
So, to be clear, if the President determines that murders/killers/enemies are infiltrating any group of people to do harm to America, he has been given the power by Congress to stop or restrict that groups immigration or non-immigration status and ability to come into the country by proclamation. This is precisely what Trump has proposed…and for obvious reasons.
It is NOT un-American, it is U.S. Law.
It is NOT un-Constitutional, Article 6 Paragraph 3 of the U.S. Constitution regarding no religious test refers specifically and only to the election of Congress...not to immigration.
As President, Donald Trump would have full legal authority under U.S. Law to do exactly what he has proposed.
All of the hype, outrage, and statements to the contrary are either political grandstanding, abject ignorance of the law, or willful lies regarding the issue.
Well, there has been shock and awe alright.
Sort of like WWI casualty lists.
In 2008 everyone thought McCain was dead in the water. He was broke and down in the polls. He more or less guaranteed he’d be the nominee. Obviously it was fixed just like it is now.
I dunno. It is sort of like a military kessel. They keep wasting assets on this campaign. These are enemy assets, so their continued impoverishment is a good thing. It would just go to Hillary later, if Trump or Cruz are the R nominee.
Haven’t seen any ads for anyone except for the mayoral race in Houston during the evening news but then ION, which we watch most of the time, doesn’t seem to have any political ads. It’s great.
Donors are still lining up - they’ve got plenty of money for people like Jeb who will fight for cheap labor to compete with Americans for jobs.
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