Posted on 11/21/2015 6:25:08 AM PST by cotton1706
As of yesterday, Rick Perry, Scott Walker and now Bobby Jindal have dropped out. I must admit I was surprised by the early exit Perry and Walker, but all three are now gone. I’m pretty sure Pataki, Graham and Santorum will be the next to leave. And, shortly thereafter, barring a major change in the polling, Huckabee and Christie will be gone.
That will leave eight candidates. Three of those eight are outsiders, Trump, Carson and Fiorina. The remainder are insiders except for Ted Cruz, who is a little bit of both. If you look at the above chart, you will see that already 11% of the electorate is un-allocated or undecided, whatever you want to call them. If this 11% coalesces to Marco Rubio, he immediately becomes the front-runner. If it goes to where the GOP Establishment really wants it, then Jeb Bush is approximately up to 16% which is third in the field. Third in a crowded field can easily be the nominee.
Once you eliminate, Kasich and Paul, you add another 7% to the undecided ranks. I’m sure you see where this is heading. Rubio or Jeb become the front-runner at that point. And, as expected, the GOP Establishment gets what they want. Of course, if some of this establishment vote goes to Carson or Trump, the GOP Establishment is in real trouble.
I’m sure that will not be the case, but as the field winnows down, more and more of it will go to the establishment candidates. The antithesis to all of this is Ted Cruz.
(Excerpt) Read more at hollywoodrepublican.net ...
The Establishment plan has been turned on its head. They intended the broad field to water down the conservative vote, but instead their own vote is being watered down.
Hope their Establishment egos keep them in the race.
“Rubio or Jeb become the front-runner at that point. “
—
Blah blah blah.
Trump is at 38.8% this morning. That is a whole huge number of voters already.
(see the Drudgereport)
Rubio or Jeb cannot even come close.
What a bass akward analysis. It is good that low percentage conservatives are getting out and narrowing the conservative side of the field while the establishment side is staying full.
The conservative candidates will get greater totals in the early caucus and primary states and the establishment candidates will never gain traction. Of course they under stand this too, so I expect a winnowing of the field there too with Pataki, Graham, etc getting out. Now will big names like Walker or Perry get out on that side too? We shall see, but I bet there will be pressure on some.
Everyone except Santorum, Cruz and Trump are on board The Cheap Labor Express.
Walker and Perry dropped out because people figured that out, Same reason Yeb! is dropping like a rock.
The citizens do not wish to abandon the rule of law and surrender their country to fraudulently documented foreigners.
from Wikipedia:
“Adlai Stevenson (of the 1952 Democratic Party) and Thomas E. Dewey (of the 1948 Republican Party) were the most recent “brokered convention” presidential nominees.[citation needed] The last winning U.S. presidential nominee produced by a brokered convention was Franklin D. Roosevelt, in 1932.”
What makes this idiot think that the warrior Reince Priebus can overrule voter preference?
The gotta split the Conservative vote!!
Gotta gottagotta gotta gotta!!
RINOS FOREVER!!
RULE OR RUIN!!!!
The main problem the GOP establishment has is Jeb is as popular as Typhoid Mary and Rubio is barely treading water.
There’s no great enthusiasm for it and I doubt it has a plan “B.”
And Trump is way too popular to derail now.
Not a bad analysis, but the Hollywood Republican (oxymoron?) forgets one important thing. If the GOPe finds a way to dump Trump or Cruz or Carson and nominate one of their boys, I think they will lose to Hillary. And by historic margins.
But then, maybe that is the plan. Lose big, then completely purge conservatives from their party. That is what the Democrats did and look how well that has worked for them. Damn near complete control of the government since 1988. The last time they were even challenged, the Republican wing of the Democrat party took Newt out.
Carson has been a bought property of the GOPe all along. It is no accident that Bill K.this week floated a 3rd party Carson/Webb ticket if Trump gets the nomination.
And Trump is in a much stronger position than this “average” from RCP suggests, given that it is backeard-looking and cherry-picked as to what polls are included.
But yeah, a Trump/Cruz deal at some point, if needed, could sow it up. Let’s jope Cruz doesn’t get greedy (and unrealistic).
Trump and Carso. Have known each other for decades. They work on the same children hospital charities including St Jude. Carso. When on Cavuto early in the campaign spoke extremely highly of Trump.
If they are supporting a one-percenter, their support is personal. They support Santorum, for example, because they like him. That doesn’t automatically translate into support for Bush.
Its also a way of saying, “undecided”. They haven’t signed on to Trump or Bush either one.
In some circles it may be unpopular to be for Trump (these circles are getting ever smaller, but lets say you work around Democrats). Its easy to say “Carson”, and what are your co-workers going to say? They can’t really say much. Its a safe call. Your car isn’t likely to get keyed if you have a Carson sticker.
Fiorina falls into that safe zone. If you’re for Fiorina your Dem friends can’t say much.
You have to look, though,at where the momentum is. No one is interested in what Bush has to say. No one is going to crawl over glass to get to his speech. If they get there they may not stay awake. Especially in the aftermath of Paris, no one cares what he thinks.
Talk to people and the honest momentum is Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Fiorina. People like Carson but don’t think he is qualified. People like Fiorina, but doubt she has a chance. Rubio is still too boyish. So that leaves Trump and Cruz. The people who like one, generally speaking, like the other. People who don’t trust Trump’s conservatism like Cruz; people who are put off by Cruz’s manner like Trump’s rough and ready exterior and people put off by Trump’s bombast lean toward Cruz.
Let’s say what is really going on here. Cruz,
Carson and Trump have the support of the voters and are generating a ton of energy. The GOPe is trying to figure out a way to overrule that. Voters are so yesterday.
Doesn’t matter. They haven’t been best buds or anything, either—though Trump gave some money, as I understand it.
With almost total control of the media, the Alinsky playbook to guide them and no morals to get in their way, the establishment insider club is "The House" and, as most gamblers are made to learn, The House always wins.
Trump, however, appears to be a true outsider who is also an adept at handling both the media and dealing with the insiders he now is running against.
These skills have helped him to become wealthy, wealthy enough to not need and be beholden to the Trojan Horses that donors often are.
Plus, Trump is the right age for the job, but, at the same time, he hasn't become "old" yet like Hillary seems to have become.
Unlike the younger candidates, Trump has lived long enough in the "real world" to learn and understand life's seasons and to have mastered the aspects of his ego and psychology that the establishment's morals-free playbook works best on.
As contenders go, Trump is a real threat to their control of the empire they've built for themselves. No other person currently running comes close.
The rest are as easily controllable as Sarah Palin was, if not more so. Ted Cruz included.
After Walter one hour interview, GOPe is done. Trump number will go up.
That was a great interview.
What a great family he’s raised.
(And sure, one more divorce than Reagan—but all highly successful and appreciative children, which isn’t easy and is a testament to Trump’s real values and wisdom.)
Rumor has it - Pataki, Kasich, & Senator Lindsey Graham are dropping out of the race very soon. Hope it’s not true, they’re so easy to beat!
Donald J. Trump â€@realDonaldTrump 5m5 minutes ago
Rumor has it - Pataki, Kasich, & Senator Lindsey Graham are dropping out of the race very soon. Hope it’s not true, they’re so easy to beat!
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