How Ted Cruz is locking up the evangelical vote

Politico ^ | 11/20/2015 | Katie Gluek

[gwgn02]

DES MOINES — The hearts of many evangelical voters, polls suggest, are with Ben Carson. But increasingly, their leaders’ heads are with Ted Cruz.

While the Texas senator trails the retired pediatric neurosurgeon by double digits in national surveys, prominent evangelical leaders and political operatives who work with the Christian conservative movement say it's the well-funded Cruz who has made the bigger organizational effort with politically active church goers.

He’s rounding up the very grass-roots leaders who wield influence with this crucial Republican voting bloc. And here in Iowa, where endorsements have often predicted caucus winners, that matters.

"Cruz has got a lot of people on the ground who can historically move numbers," said Bob Vander Plaats, a prominent and still unaligned conservative in Iowa who is hosting a major cattle-call for Republican presidential candidates on Friday night. Vander Plaats in previous cycles attached his endorsement to the candidate who ultimately won the Iowa caucuses, and this time, he is thought to be leaning toward Cruz.

[petercooper]

We don’t want to piss off the evangelicals and nominate Trump, because they may get mad, and sit home, and bang their feet on the floor.

[bimboeruption]

Trump hasn’t p***** off this one.

[Jeff Head]

I do not think they will...in fact, far from it.

But the numbers are telling the tale.

I have been tracking the averages of the four or five top polls for the GOP Presidential Race for the last 12 weeks or so.

At this point the clear front runners are Trump, Carson, Cruz, and Rubio. Fiorina was in the top group for a few weeks, but she has dropped off steadily. A big recent trend is Carson dropping off 3-4 percentage points.

Trump is maintaining his lead at just under 30%.

Ted Cruz, who has my supprt, has climbed into 3rd place at 12.5%. I expect if Carson continues to slide, Cruz will benefit from that and continue to rise. Cruz has been jockeying with Rubio for 3rd place, with Rubio now around 10%.

IMHO, they should limit the future debate to the top five contenders and allow the others remaining in the race to have t it in the pre-debate, 2nd tier debate each time.

Here's my numbers from the latest polls:

...and here's my running chart since September 1st.

[petercooper]

I’m all for Cruz, but would vote for Trump in a heartbeat.

[Jeff Head]

Ditto.

I hope Cruz rises to the top and wins it. but if he does not, he is perfectly positioned to be Trump's VP.

People know who Trump is. Critics who try and attack his brashness or style are simply going to fail because we already know that about the man and will vote for him anyway.

What most people believe is that Trump means what he says. About the immigration issue and the fences on the southern border. About standing about to the Mullahs in Iran. About negotiating from strength for US interests. About taking the fight to the Islamic Radicals and shutting down the asinine idea to bring more refugees in from Syria.

They believe he means it...and so he is getting the support.

[Psalm 144]

This evangelical is voting for Trump.

[SoConPubbie]

This evangelical is voting for Trump.

This evangelical, my family, and all of my evangelical friends are voting for Ted Cruz.

[Psalm 144]

By all means, proceed. I have no problems with Cruz.

If he makes it to the general I will happily vote for him too.

[Charles Henrickson]

Most of the religious people I know are, like me, social conservatives, and I don’t know any of them who want Trump. We do not trust him on the social/moral issues—abortion, gay marriage, religious liberty: “My pro-abort sister the judge would be a phenomenal Supreme Court justice!” We don’t appreciate his shallow pandering: “Look, I’m holding up a Bible! Don’t ask me what’s in it, but—hey, listen, ‘Merry Christmas!’” We don’t like his rude, arrogant attitude: “Look at my poll numbers! So much better than those losers!” I support Cruz, and I don’t think Trump will win the nomination, but if by some chance he does, it would take a lot of convincing for me to actively support Trump.

[FourPeas]

Cruz is running a very methodical, patient campaign, wisely building an organization and support amongst those who have clout. It demonstrates the ability to plan and implement a strategic operation. It’s the sign of a real leader.