Posted on 11/18/2015 7:22:41 AM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
As is always the case, national polling is drawing the lion's share of the attention in discussions about the Republican primary race. As is also always the case, this emphasis is misplaced. This is, after all, a race for delegates. These delegates are awarded in a series of state contests taking place over the course of some four months, and they are awarded under convoluted rules that vary wildly from state to state.
Which is a lengthy way of saying: The 2016 Republican primary campaign is heavily path dependent, rendering national polling of little value. The order of the contests, the structure of the rules, and the interplay between those two factors can play a huge role in selecting the eventual winner that national polls simply cannot illustrate.
To help make this easier to visualize and understand, we've created the widget below that will allow you to walk through the GOP selection process yourself. The process is fairly simple.
Beginning with Iowa in February and working through South Dakota in June, and the awarding of "RNC delegates," you simply input the share of the vote that you think each candidate will receive. You can use the next state button to advance through the elections, and the previous state button if you feel that you've made a mistake. There's a "reset" button at the bottom of the page if you want to start over.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Trende is another establishment hack. I see his task today is to continue to state plausible paths to the nomination for Jebbie and Amnestio. Sundance was all over this month’s ago. At this point, it’s really Trump’s for the taking with Cruz in a solid position as well.
The logical contortions needed to get to “Donald Trump will be a non-factor” resemble the refusal of the Left to see reality for what it is.
This article clearly states the author’s preference and even says so (”Perhaps this merely reflects our internalized opinions regarding how things play out.”) but recognizing that bias may/may not exist does not discount that bias.
Trump (outsider), Cruz (conservative) and an establishment candidate will be the final 3. Bush and Rubio will fight it out for that establishment field - a fight I’d expect Rubio to win.
You can have fun playing with this.
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GOP 2016 Predictions : Ben Carson at 7.5 % by Christmas — Yeb Bush Waterloo in Florida Defeat !
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3356989/posts
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comes down to individuals getting to the polls. Florida will be key for the long run. Iowa and NH are nice and Sc is important but when push comes to shove it will be decided by Florida.
Thanks!
Type on state allocation.
I have
Trump 27
Cruz 20
Rubio 8
Carson 1
Basically, Carson levels off at about 15% early on, eventually dropping to 5-10%, which is enough to be a pest (politically speaking).
I have not gotten good sources for who has qualified for whcih states ballots yet, and I don’t know how good Carson’s team will be for gettign on tough ballots like VA and IL.
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